Thursday, March 19, 2020

We'll be growing when others are falling.

"As rising infections of the novel coronavirus pose a medical and economic challenge for policymakers worldwide, global investors raced to stock up on cash, dumping even safe haven assets such as gold and government bonds." Cash means the US dollar. "Dramatic action from policymakers failed to bring much calm to financial markets on Thursday, with stocks in Asia sinking while European and US indexes were mixed. The only clear winner was the US dollar, which has surged as investors scrambled for cash."  "The strong US dollar is slamming global capital markets like a sledgehammer today," wrote Stephen Innes, global chief market strategist at Axicorp. Central banks in emerging markets are having to sell dollars to support their currencies while there is greater demand for the currency from their banks. "That merely signals more [US dollar] strength to come as the buying frenzy continues," said Innes. "Economists are already pencilling in a US recession in 2020, and are also not ruling out a recession in other parts of the world." "In the United States, the Trump administration could issue $1,000 checks to all Americans. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Wednesday that a temporary roll out of universal basic income is under consideration. And Japan's government is reportedly weighing handouts of at least 12,000 yen ($109) per person." "Hong Kong said in late February that it would give 10,000 Hong Kong dollars ($1,288) to all permanent residents who are at least 18 years old. Australia said last week that it would pay 750 Australian dollars ($434) to pensioners and others who receive income assistance." This is in addition to actions by central banks. The Federal Reserve reduced its funds rate to 0 to 0.25% and promised quantitative easing worth $700 billion. The Bank of England slashed interest rate to its lowest ever level at 0.1% and promised to buy government and corporate bonds worth 200 billion pounds to provide more money to banks. So what is the second largest economy in the world, the Eurozone, doing to stimulate its economy? Precious little, it seems. Economic growth in the Eurozone has been anemic since the financial crash of 2008, growing just 0.1% in the last quarter of 2019. The European Central Bank is to spend 750 billion euros to buy bonds to infuse more liquidity into banks. But, monetary policy alone will not suffice. As other nations have showed Europe needs more fiscal spending. Germany, the largest economy, is to spend 550 billion euros to support companies so that they are not forced to lay off workers. "This is the bazooka," said Finance Minister Olaf Scholz. However, this attempts to protect German jobs but does not help the entire Eurozone. "For more than 10 years, four German governments led by Merkel have preached the virtues of austerity in the Eurozone." This is because of an obsession with 'Schwarze Null', which means 'black zero', signifying a balanced budget. In all this mayhem, what about India? S&P says that growth will fall to 5.2% in 2020. When others are contracting. India rocks.   

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