Monday, March 16, 2020

We're unique.Normal rules do not apply.

The trade war between China and the US, and the coronavirus have led many companies to diversify away from China, hence, "For India, this raises the possibility of a silver lining amid the turmoil -- that companies diversify their supply bases and invest in India," wrote Nikita Kwatra. "However, trade experts fear that India's growing protectionist tendencies could get in the way. The past three Union budgets have seen the country raise import barriers in a bid to protect domestic industries." "India's rising tariff walls and lack of integration into global production chains are probably the reason why its share in world merchandise exports has largely remained stagnant in a 1.6-1.7% range since 2011." Germany exported goods worth $1.56 trillion in 2018 according to the World Bank, compared to India. which exported a little over $322 billion. India is not like any other country in the world. Like the US, India is dependent on domestic consumption which accounts for 60% of GDP but is growing weakly at present. Domestic consumption contributes 68% to the US economy, which is the largest importer and the second largest exporter in the world. Exports should account for 30% of India's GDP, said World Bank economist Hans Timmer but it is only 10% at present. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India was the number five economy in the world in 2019, behind the US, China, Japan and Germany, but ahead of the UK and France. However, the population of India stands at 1,376 million, whereas the UK has a total population of about 68 million and the population of France is just over 65 million. Which means that per capita GDP of France at $$41,760 and UK at $41,030 are much higher than India's at $2,171. China's total population is nearly the same as that of India's but it enforced a one-child policy in 1979 which resulted in 400 million fewer births, allowing women to join the workforce, resulted in better health of women, and better education and health of children. The adverse effects were brutal enforcement, there was selection in favor of boys and the population is ageing. According to the UNICEF, India had the largest number of births on 1 January 2020, with 67,385 births. By the end of the century, India will be exploding with the world's highest population at 1.5 billion. Exports rose 2.9% to $37.5 billion in February, while imports rose 2.5% so that trade deficit was lower at $9.7 billion. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal expressed pride. We are proud of a small achievements. We are unique.            

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