Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Why worry? Take selfie with coronavirus.

"Hong Kong: Evidence of the devastation wreaked on the global economy by the coronavirus pandemic mounted on Tuesday as activity surveys for March from Australia and Japan showed record falls, with surveys in Europe and the United States expected to be just as dire," wrote Marius Zaharia. "Entire regions have been placed on lockdown and in some places soldiers are patrolling the streets to keep consumers and customers indoors, halting services and production and breaking down global supply chains. Mirroring the emptying of supermarket shelves around the world, indebted companies have rushed into money markets to hoard dollars, with a global shortage of greenback funding threatening to cripple firms from airlines to retailers." Both supply and demand are being hit. "Goldman Sachs has issued a grim forecast, predicting that US gross domestic product (GDP) will plummet by 24 percent in the second quarter of this year, by far the largest drop since detailed records have been kept." Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates estimates that US corporations will lose $4 trillion and companies worldwide will lose a staggering $12 trillion. "Constituting less than 5 percent of the world's population, Americans generate and earn more than 20 percent of the world's total income." Total retail sales in the US, excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurant sales, exceeded $5 trillion in 2017. If the coronavirus outbreak is not controlled by May, "The early estimates suggest that the global economy will contract by about 5 percent," said Ruchir Sharma. Despite pessimism by experts, President Donald Trump wants to reopen the economy by Easter which is just 2 weeks away. Good Friday is on 10 April. "We will assess at that time and give it more time if we need a little more time. We have to open this country up," he said. The great influenza pandemic of 1918 reduced global GDP by about 6% and consumption by 8%. Many have predicted that a rush to open US businesses could result in a sharp rise in mortality. Trump also wants trials on a combination of the anti-malarial drug chloroquin and the common antibiotic azithromycin because of anecdotal reports of benefits in patients with coronavirus. Again experts have ridiculed him. Why? It should be relatively simple and quick to carry out trials. To date over 422,000 have been infected so sample size should not be a problem. Earlier cases were treated symptomatically and extensive statistical data are already available so there is no need for placebo control. Patients can be randomized into those receiving chloroquin plus various antibiotics and those receiving cholroquin plus anti-retroviral drugs. Presence or absence of benefits should be apparent within a week. Amid all this gloom some are very optimistic. 6 Pakistani officials have been suspended for taking selfie with an infected colleague. Thank you Pakistan. 

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