Will a windfall prevent a downfall?

Oil prices crashed two days back. "Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were down 22%, last trading at $35.45 per barrel. US oil is trading at $33.15 per barrel, a decline of 20%," wrote John Defterios. The slowdown in global growth due to the coronavirus pandemic will further depress demand for oil and keep prices low in the next financial year, wrote Prof VA Nageswaran and Karan Bhasin. As crude prices slide below "price of India's oil basket of $65 per barrel reputedly assumed for 2020-21" the government can "shore up revenue by levying higher excise duty", as it did between 2014 and 2016 when it extracted a windfall of Rs 11 trillion from higher fuel taxes. So what should the government do with the second windfall? Reduce its fiscal deficit, "clear all dues of the central government, whether to private companies,  state governments, or others awaiting tax refunds", and "provide relief to beleaguered telecom companies". India "spent $111 billion on oil imports last fiscal year, and the figure for 2019-20 is close to $120 billion so far," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Hence, a 20% drop in price over the next fiscal year would save at least $20 billion in foreign exchange." This gain will be somewhat balanced by a fall in remittances from Gulf countries as they cut expenses because of reduced earnings from oil. So what is Ranade's advice? The government should lock in low prices by forward purchases, provide support for small and medium enterprises, clear all outstanding dues and support exports "aggressively, especially in textiles, leather, agro processing and other labor intensive sectors". The prospect may not be so rosy, wrote an editorial in the Mint. Exports have fallen 6 months in a row and could decline further as Europe and the US go into lockdown. Aviation, tourism and hotels are down and unemployed workers at the diamond center of Surat are committing suicide, wrote Nidheesh MK. Not only have exports fallen, the industry has not received Rs 500 billion from China and Hong Kong which account for 40% of our export of polished diamonds amounting to $8 billion a year. Losses at state-owned telecom firm BSNL jumped 2.5 times to Rs 390 billion. The government has earmarked Rs 687.51 billion for reviving BSNL and MTNL. Public sector units (PSUs) BHEL, BSNL and Coal India have warned staff of pay cuts if targets are not achieved. The government is to make a second attempt to sell Air India this year after the fist attempt in 2018 received not a single bid because of the company's debt load of Rs 600 billion ($8.3 billion). Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri thinks it is a "great asset". "Across the world, governments seem ready to sacrifice commerce to keep their people safe," wrote Mint. "A responsive government must respond to the prevailing reality -- and, let's face it, it's grim." Actually it was grim before, it's grimmer now.