Sunday, March 15, 2020

Move away from danger. That's the only remedy.

The panic created by the coronavirus pandemic is worrying as there is "evidence that stress is building to dangerous levels in crucial arteries of the financial system", as "Bankers, companies and individual investors are dashing to stock up on cash and other assets considered safe in a downturn to ride out the chaos." The key concern is liquidity. "Investors are having trouble buying and selling US Treasuries, considered the safest of all assets." "Funding in US dollars, the world's most traded currency, is getting harder to obtain." If liquidity becomes a problem companies may find it harder to pay their debt. "Companies have spent the years since the global financial crisis binging on debt," wrote Juila Horowitz. "Corporate debt among non-banks exploded to $75 trillion at the end of 2019, up from $48 trillion at the end of 2009, according to the Institute of International Finance." Some experts, like Prof VA Nageswaran has been warning about asset price bubbles for some time but it took a virus to pierce the bubble. "Mounting debts have hit Chinese companies struggling to pay workers and suppliers amid the coronavirus outbreak." "The government has asked banks to offer more credit for an economy stunned as the virus spreads rapidly. But a survey of small and medium Chinese firms found millions on the verge of collapse." "For years, wonks bearing spreadsheets have warned that corporations around the planet were developing a dangerous addiction to debt," wrote Peter S Goodman. "Interest rates were so low that borrowing money was essentially free, enticing companies to avail themselves with abandon." Last year, Denmark's third largest bank was offering customers a "10-year fixed rate mortgage with an interest rate of -0,5%", which meant that customers would have to pay back less than they borrowed. Something bad was bound to happen and it maybe happening now. "The coronavirus outbreak could cost the global economy up to USD 2 trillion this year, the UN's trade and development agency said, warning that the shock from the epidemic will cause a recession in some countries and depress global growth to below 2.5 percent." "If consumers cut consumption by no more than 5% to avoid infection, that will suffice for a world recession,"  wrote SA Aiyer. A recession is two quarters of negative growth. "Corporate debts have stayed high after 2008, so the global and Indian financial systems are again in danger, even as they struggle to throw off the bad loans and mega losses of the past." Vaccines protect against viruses and the only vaccine is to diversify away from China completely as they will continue to eat exotic animals and will remain a danger to the world forever. Otherwise, we will be reading similar articles in future.

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