Wednesday, March 25, 2020

The difference is in how much we can print.

The US Senate finally passed a $2 trillion spending bill to support small businesses and those who have lost jobs due to the coronavirus outbreak. This is in addition to the $700 billion that the Federal Reserve will spend to buy mortgage backed securities and corporate bonds and to increase liquidity. Total spending will be almost equal to India's gross domestic product (GDP). Travel industry, restaurants, car sales and industrial production are falling precipitously. The price of crude oil has plummeted to its lowest level since June 2001. With people being restricted indoors and commercial activity at a minimum, pollution levels are falling. "Mumbai: For the third time in three days, the Wall Street brokerage Bank of America Securities has lowered global growth projections on Friday to zero, saying the world has already plunged into recession because of the coronavirus pandemic." It lowered India's June quarter growth rate to 3.1%. "The US recovery will begin in the second half but the speed and magnitude will depend on the policy response. We believe there is no upper bound, it added." So, what can we do to stop our economy falling into recession? Experts believe that the government can spend the equivalent of $18 billion if it increases fiscal deficit by just 1% of GDP. That would be less than 10% of what is required because, "Mumbai: Pegging the cost of the COVID-19 lockdown at USD 120 billion (approximately Rs 9 lakh crore) or 4 percent of the GDP, analysts on Wednesday sharply cut their growth estimates and stressed on the need to announce an economic package." Care Ratings has predicted a daily loss of Rs 350-400 billion which adds up to a total of Rs 6.3-7.2 trillion. Seems unfair that the US, with an estimated population of 331 million can spend a 1,000 times more than what we can spend with a population of 1.3 billion. Especially since the US government has a debt of $22 trillion which is about 80% of GDP, while our government has a debt of about $1.9 trillion which is 67% of GDP. Governments raise money by selling bonds through their central banks but on Tuesday, "For half an hour after trading started, nobody bought or sold a bond on Reserve Bank of India's platform," wrote Sircar and Goyal. The benchmark 10-year yield has risen 33 basis points since falling to 5.99% in early March, which was the lowest in a decade." Whereas in the US, "Short-term government bills in the US are offering negative yields for the first time. The one-month and three-month Treasury bills dipped below zero Wednesday." The reason is that the dollar is the main currency of trade in the world and only the US can print dollars. If the Indian government prints rupees its value will plummet, pushing up the cost of imports and resulting in inflation. The rupee fell to its lowest level of 76 to the dollar. We own the printing press. But we can't use them.

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