Sunday, March 29, 2020

Sports is big business, not just games.

"Following the Black Death, the plague that's believed to have killed 60% of Europe's population in the second half of the 14th century, the realization that life is short, played a big role in shaping interest rates in the late medieval Europe, stretching all the way to the Enlightenment," wrote Andy Mukherjee. As the population fell, productivity improved and wages increased due to disinflation. "The change in behavior was more stark." "Products that hadn't been for mass consumption earlier -- such as linen underwear and glass panes in windows -- became more widely available as cheap capital rushed to satiate the growing desire to consume" and "English kings attempted by issuing ordinances, repeatedly for nearly a century, to fix summer wages for masons and carpenters to their low pre-Plague levels". Will the coronavirus change behavior with working from home, more automation and universal basic income to offset changes in working conditions. The virus has brought the whole world to a standstill, never seen in living memory. As nations have gone into lockdown, flights have been canceled, with the airlines industry facing a loss of $113 billion. Prospects for airlines in India are dire. "A recent ICICI Securities report on two listed airlines, Indigo and Spicejet, forecast Indigo to post a loss of Rs 230 crore (Rs 2.30 billion) and Spicejet to report losses of up to Rs 525 crore (Rs 5.25 billion) in FY21." Airlines in India have a history of failing, the latest being Jet Airways, wrote James Asquith. This is because of extremely high taxes on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and protection of Air India which makes it impossible for private companies to compete. With aircraft grounded, the tourism industry has come to a standstill. Up to 50 million jobs are dependent on tourism worldwide as it accounts for 10% of global GDP. All sports have been stopped which could invite a shrug. After all, sports is not an essential service. "The global sports market reached a value of nearly $488.5 billion in 2018, having grown at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% since 2014, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% to nearly $614.1 billion by 2022." "The global recreation market, of which the sports market is a segment, reached a value of nearly $1,435.4 billion in 2018, having grown at 4.5% since 2014." The Indian Premier League (IPL) for cricket is worth $6.3 billion, more than the English Premier League of football and the National Hockey League in the US. If the IPL gets canceled players, boards and sponsors will take a big hit. All because of the filthy eating habits of the Chinese. The animal markets in China have opened up already so we could face another pandemic in the near future. The virus is an infection. The Chinese are an infestation.

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