Not easy when you have to worry about foreigners.

"Poor cash flows, rising leverage, and stretched valuations of of firms had analysts worried about an impending global recession last year. But no one guessed that a micro-organism could be the trigger for a global financial shock," wrote Bhatia and Bhattacharya. As the country gradually goes into a shutdown, earnings will fall and people will cut spending, both because shops and malls are closed and because they will be fearful of spending. This will affect both direct and indirect tax collections, limiting the amount of stimulus the government can provide. On the other hand, the price of crude oil has fallen dramatically which will save enormous money for the government. West Texas Intermediate has fallen from over $60 a barrel at the beginning of the year to around $25 per barrel today. "For every dollar the price of oil drops, India saves approximately $1.5 billion, according to Akhil Bery, an analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group." But, though the government gains in foreign currency saved, consumers in India will not see a fall in prices at the pump because the rupee has fallen to below 76 to the dollar for the first time ever. Also, the government was quick to increase excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 3 per liter to rake in higher revenues. "Growth may weaken to 3% in the first three months of this year from 4.3% estimated previously, according to Oxford Economics, while Jeffries sees room for the government to spend $18 billion to support activity," wrote Anirban Nag. This will increase fiscal deficit for the next financial year from 3.5%, as predicted in the budget, to 4.5%. However, the IMF says that India's fiscal deficit is second highest among emerging market (EM) nations. "According to 2019 estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India's fiscal deficit (standing at 7.5% of GDP) is the joint highest among the cohort (along with Brazil) and significantly higher than the EM average (3% of GDP). Unlike the Budget 2020 fiscal deficit estimate (3.8% in 2019-20), which captures fiscal deficit of the union government, the IMF's fiscal deficit definition includes the financial position of all levels of government within a country (center, state and local governments)," wrote Surbhi Bhatia. The government has already spent 128.5% of its budgeted expenditure for the year between April 2019 and January 2020. So far, foreign investors have sold Indian equities worth Rs 1 trillion in March. The stock market index the Sensex has dropped from 40,723 at close on 31 January. It fell 13.15% to close at 25,981 yesterday. If fiscal deficit zooms up our credit rating maybe cut, which will result in a massive sell out of Indian stocks and bonds and the rupee will plummet as foreign investors take money home. The proverbial rock and a hard place.