Is it a bhang view of the economy?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Praetorian Guard charged with all guns blazing at the critics of his economic management at the Economic Times Global Business Summit. "Modi, noting that the world economy was taking a hit, said his government's $5 trillion target was achievable, thanks to a four-pronged approach: Collaboration with the private sector, fair competition, wealth creation and removing archaic laws." Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of India is around $3 trillion at present and growth rate for 2020 will be an anemic 5.4%, according to Moody's. Investors are factoring in a strong possibility of a recession due to the coronavirus pandemic. "We are in the tail end of a modest slowdown of the economy," said Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India is "quite insulated" from the global economy and hence we are "on a relatively strong wicket". The minister is happy because we hardly export anything so who cares about the world. Exports fell for the sixth month in a row in January to $26.4 billion while imports came in at $41.5 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $15.2 billion. In 2018-19, our total exports amounted to $331 billion while imports cost us $507.44 billion, giving an eye-watering trade deficit of $176 billion. Tiny South Korea with a population of just 51.5 million exported a total of $604.8 billion in 2018 and imported a total of $535.2 billion, getting a trade surplus of about $70 billion. Flying high, Aviation Minister Hardeep Puri cannot see any slowdown at all and condemned critics as "politically motivated". Despite International Air Transport Association (IATA) expressing fears of global airlines losing $113 billion combined if the Coronavirus pandemic continues to spread. The Economic Survey 2019-20 suggested that "India can become a trade super power by way of exports. During the period between 2001-2006, labor intensive exports helped China generate 70 million jobs for workers with primary education". Modi must be elated with the collapse in the price of crude oil yesterday by over 30%, with benchmark Brent crude dropping to $31.02 per barrel. Goldman Sachs is predicting that the price could drop to as low as $20 a barrel as a petulant Saudi Arabia slashed prices because of disagreement between producers. Brent crude was selling at near $60 just one month back and at $71 per barrel in April last year. By 2018, the government earned Rs 11 trillion from taxes on fuel and last year's budget increased excise duty on petrol so that taxes rose to 105% of its price. Modi hoped to gain $29 billion by privatising state-owned companies but who will buy Air India with no passengers. A global recession will slash foreign investment, weaken the rupee and stop growth. Tomorrow is the festival of colors Holi when some people get high with bhang, derived from cannabis. Things look different once you come down.