Monday, March 09, 2020

How will Xi vanquish an enemy he cannot see?

"According to a New York Times analysis, at least 760 million Chinese, or more than half the country's population, are under varying degrees of residential lockdown," wrote Prof Minxin Pei. "Even as China's leaders tout their progress in containing the virus, they are showing signs of stress." "The Chinese public is well and truly outraged" and there was an "uproar over the 7 February announcement that the Wuhan-based doctor Li Wenliang, whom the local authorities accused of 'rumor-mongering' when he attempted to warn his colleagues about the coronavirus back in December, had died of the disease caused by it". Will this topple the Communist Party? Not without the support of the army. President Xi Jinping made himself the "commander in chief of the military's Joint Operations Command Center", dressed in "camouflage fatigues". He is also "mighty uncle Xi", a sobriquet reserved for emperors in the past. He has been anointed "core leader", on par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, and is to remain president for life. Many people must be eyeing his post with envy. The coronavirus crisis is not the same as the subprime mortgage crisis that started in the US in 2007 and spread to financial markets with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. At that time central banks responded by printing money. The Federal Reserve in the US slashed its Funds Rate from around 5% in January 2007 to 0.25% in December 2008. China injected $586 billion into its economy to fend off the effects of the crisis and stimulate growth. "Economic growth increased to 11.9% in the first quarter of 2010 compared to 6.8% in the final quarter of 2008 and 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009," said a newsletter from the World Bank. Growth in the US was slower but lasted for a record 126 months. "At 126 months, the United States is in its longest economic expansion in history, breaking the record of 120 months of economic growth from March 1991 to March 2001," wrote David John Marotta. "Between 1929 and 2008, the United States had 14 recessions. That averages one recession every 5.6 years." Markets celebrated, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record high of 29,551.42 on 12 February. Yesterday, it crashed 1,915.05 points to close at 23,949.73 points. This is a near 17% drop in less than a month. However, this time central banks have limited firepower to stop the rot. In an emergency move the Fed cut its funds rate by 50 basis points to 1-1.25% which is close to zero lower bound. Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Japan and the 19 countries of the euro area have negative interest rates, which means there is enormous liquidity in the financial system already. And the coronavirus is not a one-time event like the bankruptcy of a bank. How long it will linger and how long before people feel brave enough to travel and trade again, remain to be seen. Xi has imprisoned all political opponents. How will he stop an opponent he cannot see?  

1 comment:

Suji said...

Nice Article...
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