Sunday, May 14, 2023

Will need a foreign Indian.

"The Congress (Party) wrested Karnataka from the BJP with a convincing win on Saturday (06 May), securing a majority on its own with wins in 136 seats in a 224-seat assembly." ET. "Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who covered 50 seats across seven districts in his Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India Trek) through Karnataka, framed the performance as victory of the poor over crony capitalists." "Prime Minister Narendra Modi held nine rallies and six roadshows, while home minister Amit Shah held 16 rallies and 15 roadshows after the polls were announced." With this the southern states of India comprised of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, wikipedia, have all rejected the BJP. "A dozen Ministers who held prominent portfolios have lost their seats in the Karnataka Assembly, brought down by the anti-BJP wave that swept through the state in this election." The Hindu. Special pleasure would have come from, "Eight Congress turncoats who joined the BJP and helped it form the government in 2019, lost in the May 10 Karnataka Assembly elections, for which the results were announced." ET. Does this mean that the BJP is in danger of losing the general election which must be held by May 2024 (wikipedia)? Not quite. "Modi, 72, turned up in Karnataka several times during the campaign, blasting Gandhi for coming from what he described as a royal dynasty." It did not work. However, "Voters also tend to cast their ballots differently in national elections than state polls. The BJP has never won a majority in any assembly elections in Karnataka, but it won most of the parliamentary seats in the past four general elections." ET. Also, each of the five southern states is ruled by a completely different political party. Andhra Pradesh is ruled by the YSR Congress Party which won 151 seats out of a total of 175 seats in the assembly in 2019. wikipedia. Kerala is ruled by a coalition of 11 parties and 5 Independents, which have a total of 99 seats out of a total of 140 seats. Of these 99, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or the CPM has 62 seats. The opposition alliance is led by the Congress Party with 21 out of 41 seats. The Tamil Nadu government is formed by the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) with 159 out of a total of 234 seats. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has the largest share with 133 seats. wikipedia. The Telangana Assembly has a total of 120 seats of which the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) has 103 seats and forms the government. wikipedia. With the opposition divided among so many parties, it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to form a united front against the BJP and it is hard to see them agreeing on who will be the prime minister in case they win. Also there is the Hindi speaking belt also known as the Cow Belt, comprised of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh. baharatpedia. Together these 7 states have a total of 309 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. wikipedia. These states tend to support the BJP slogan of Hindutva. Add the 26 seats of Modi's home state of Gujarat, Modi seems invincible. If the BJP is to be defeated the opposition needs to campaign on social media through someone of Indian origin, who speaks Hindi fluently, and is citizen of a Western country and so cannot be arrested or harassed with false charges in India. And quickly. Difficult, but not impossible.

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