Thursday, May 04, 2023

The Baroda Triangle.

Using $1.90 at purchasing power parity (PPP) as the upper limit of abject poverty, "a World Bank working party used a private household survey, the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey (CPHS) carried out by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) - whose representativeness of the poor has been questioned - to show that while poverty went down very sharply between 2011-12 and 2019-20, at around 10%, it was far from eliminated," wrote Maitreesh Ghatak & Rishabh Kumar. However, in an IMF paper, Surjit Bhalla et al, using dubious assumptions, asserted that India has eliminated poverty. Why assume? Because, "India's current government has a somewhat difficult relationship with data. Various surveys and calculations, from the national income accounts to household consumption patterns and jobs data, have been canceled or reviewed," wrote Mihir Sharma. "The last official of the Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) - the basis of calculating poverty estimates - in the public domain dates back to 2011," wrote Yamini Aiyer. "The only conclusion to draw from the Government's refusal to fill the statistical vacuum is that it fears the political consequences of acknowledging the reality that poverty may well have increased." But, "While poverty statistics have been ignored, implicit in the welfare announcements of recent years is a recognition by the government that much of India is indeed 'poor' and is in need of some form of welfare support." As if to prove this point, Union minister Piyush Goyal has announced 5 kg of free food grains till the end of this year to over 800 million people. NDTV. That is over 57% of the total population of 1.4 billion. "India ranked 107 out of 121 countries in the Global Hunger Index 2022 with its child wasting rate at 19.3 percent, being the highest in the world." ET. "With a score of 29.1, the level of hunger in India has been labeled 'serious'." "Neighboring countries - Pakistan (99), Bangladesh (84), Nepal (81) and Sri Lanka (64) have all fared better." No use suppressing statistics if the media reports the true situation. And so, "India has slipped to the 161st rank in terms of press freedom out of 180 countries ranked - 11 ranks worse than 2022, when it stood at 150." The Bermuda Triangle may soon be renamed the 'Baroda Triangle' where facts have a habit of disappearing, wrote Avay Shukla. "It started with the disappearance of a university degree of a certain individual: nobody knows if it even exists." "More moneys have simply vanished in funds like the electoral bonds or the PM CARES, or what are called NPAs, and no one has a clue about what happened to them." "The latest to disappear into the ether are huge slices of Indian history and science." Indians were outraged by a German cartoon showing an overcrowded train in India compared to a Chinese bullet train. BT. Suppressing facts and lying may win elections in India, but foreigners know the truth. Occasionally they sneer at us.   

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