Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Young or aging.

"The case for investing in India - a nation of 1.4 billion - is clear, and only bolstered by recent geopolitical shifts. As Western leaders look to boost economic cooperation with countries that share similar values, India, the world's largest democracy, stands to gain." CNN. "Its vast consumer market and pool of affordable labor is also drawing more attention from global brands and trading partners." "Back in the 1960s, when today's grandparents were having children, India's fertility rate was 6, around the same rate as some African countries now. But, according to the government, India's total fertility rate dropped to 2.0 in the latest nationwide assessment period from 2019-2021, down from 3.4 from 1992 to 1993." CNN. "According to the UN's classification, India is now an 'aging society' meaning that 7% of its population is age 65 or older." "The UN report has ignited the old debate whether India can take advantage of its demographic advantage before its labor force peaks and the population begins to age," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "India right now has a median age of 28 years." Comparing with 6 Asian countries when their populations reached a similar landmark, there is a wide difference in per capita income. Per capita income of India is at $2,601, while that of South Korea was the highest at $12,565 and that of China was the lowest at $865 at this stage. India is the lowest in the labor force participation rate (LFPR), and, at just 23, the female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) is less than half that of all the other nations. It is of no use having a young labor force if they are not working. "Meanwhile, a fact check: India is currently around 15 years behind China in terms of per capita income at market exchange rates." "The upshot: India has been unable to productively employ its young population, especially females." "India's workforce is not rising in relation to its increasing working age population, said CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) chief Mahesh Vyas." The Wire. "India's workforce has largely remained stagnant at a little over 400 million in the last five years. Only 40% of people aged 15 years and above offer themselves for work. The rest 60% are dependents." Probably because, "The quality of jobs in India is very low." "In India, what a single Indian executive makes in just four hours is more than what an average worker earns in a year, found an Oxfam's analysis." The Wire. And so, "The CBI registered an FIR against Oxfam India and its office-bearers for alleged violation of the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act and carried out searches at its office, officials said." TOI. The US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) "asked the State Department to designate India as a 'country of particular concern' on the status of religious freedom", and "urged the Biden administration to impose targeted sanctions on Indian government agencies and officials responsible." NDTV. Without jobs the economy will stall. Will India remain important then? 

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