Monday, May 08, 2023

It's available.

"India's merchandise trade deficit hit a record high of $266 billion last year 2022-23," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Thankfully India has a surplus in the export of software to the tune of $145bn. So the net shortage is 266 minus 145, which is $121bn. This is still a large deficit, and it needs to be funded by foreign inflows, either as dollar loans or investment into stock and capital markets." The US government has a debt of $31 trillion and a trade deficit of $1 trillion which is financed by foreign exchange reserves of other countries invested in US government bonds. India also receives dollars for free. "India's inward gross remittances touched an all- time high of $107.5 billion during calendar year 2022, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced." ET. "In 2021, India had received $89.4 billion in remittances, according to a World Bank report, which made India the top recipient globally." "With a share of 23 percent of total remittances, the United States has surpassed the United Arab Emirates as the top source country for India's remittances in 2020-21." While the US government has to pay interest on its bonds and has to redeem them on maturity, India's remittances are for families of Indian expats or for buying assets in India and so not a liability for the Indian government. "As of December 2022, more than 58% of the global foreign exchange were in dollars," wrote Vivek Kaul. Down from over 70% in 1999. But, "data from the Bank for International Settlements tells us that close to half of the global trade is still invoiced in dollars. When it comes to cross border loans, half of the loans are in dollars. In the case of foreign exchange transactions, dollar is on one side in 88% of the transactions." The biggest advantage of the dollar is that it is freely available and accepted everywhere in the world. "Although the amount can't be precisely tracked, The Federal Reserve Board of Governors recently estimated that foreigners held $950 billion in US banknotes at the end of the first quarter of 2021, or about 45% of all Federal Reserve notes outstanding, including two-thirds of $100 bills." stlouisfed.org. US currency supply has increased to about $2.28 trillion in September 2022, which means foreigners hold about $1.03 trillion. Indians, on the other hand, are not allowed to carry more than Rs 25,000 in cash when going abroad (which is equivalent to just about $305). TOI. Also, inflation rate in the US is usually at or below 2%. US Inflation Calculator. It started rising from April 2021, so the US Federal Reserve has increased its Funds Rate ten times in 14 months to the highest level in 16 years. BBC. Whereas, the average CPI inflation rate in India is around 5% or higher, inflation.eu, which means the rupee is constantly losing value against the dollar. Dollars are freely available, rupees are severely restricted and the rupee is constantly losing value against the dollar. No wonder, no one wants the rupee. It's only logical.      

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