Monday, May 15, 2023

Rises and falls.

"Wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) declined to -0.92 percent in April on an annual basis from 1.34 percent in March, the Department for Promotion of Industry and and Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce & Industry said." ET. "The decline in the rate of inflation was broad based, primarily driven by fall in prices of crude, energy prices, non-food and food articles, the government said in the statement." "Inflation as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI), eased to 4.70 percent in April from 5.66 percent in the previous month, government data showed." CNBC. "On the other hand, India's industrial output, as measured by the index of industrial production or IIP, in March declined to 1.1 percent, data from the ministry of statistics showed. In the previous month, February, the IIP was 5.5 percent, and the average from April to February was also 5.5 percent." "India's goods exports shrank 12.7% on-year to $34.66 billion in the first month of FY24 (April), dragged by sluggish demand and recession in major markets, official data showed. Trade deficit fell to a 20-month low at $15.2 billion in April against $18.36 billion a year ago as cooling commodity prices, especially of petroleum, led to a sharp 14% contraction in imports." "As per an official, imports had declined on the back of cooling commodity prices and reduced demand for products considered as discretionary spends." "India Inc's net profits for the January-March 2023 quarter (Q4FY23), are up just 2.3% year-on-year, which is the worst performance by them since April-June 2020 (Q1FY21), Business Standard reported." ET. "According to the report, combined net profits were up 47.6% YoY in Q4 FY22." Is the 2.3% growth this year on top of last year's growth at 47.6%? Can profits just keep growing in percentage terms and is there no upper limit? "Margins of several large packaged goods companies picked up sharply in the January-March period" due to "a decline in costs of key commodities, consumers' ability to absorb price hikes in urban markets and premiumisation of select categories." ET. No wonder the government raked in a record Rs 1.87035 trillion from goods and services tax (GST) collections. pib.gov.in. "Shopping across ecommerce platforms is growing slower than anticipated," as "Executives said they are witnessing lower uptake due to factors such as consumption slowdown and decreased discounts from new-age brands due to the funding winter." ET. "India's unemployment rate climbed to a four-month high, the latest data showed," as "The nationwide joblessness rose to 8.11% in April from 7.8% in March." ET. This is from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) because the Indian government does not reveal such data. However, "RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das...said that the central bank stands by its FY24 GDP growth forecast of 6.5% even as some international agencies, including the IMF, have projected lower growth rates." ET. Hallelujah. So, let it be written.   

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