Monday, May 22, 2023

Shutdowns are nothing new.

"President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could not reach an agreement on Monday (yesterday) on how to raise the US government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling with just 10 days before default that could sink the US economy, but vowed to keep talking." Reuters. They can't reach a deal because, "McCarthy pressures the White House to agree to spending cuts in the federal budget that Biden considers 'extreme', and the president pushes new taxes that Republicans have rejected." "If the US government can't agree to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, it risks defaulting on its debt." HT. "A US default would likely cause chaos in the financial markets." "The government likely won't make it through June 15 without defaulting on its obligations unless lawmakers reach a debt deal, according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen." BI. "Yellen also rebuffed notions that the US could avoid a default without Congress lifting the debt ceiling, like Joe Biden invoking the 14th Amendment, which says the validity of US debt 'shall not be questioned'." On the other hand, "The US doesn't actually have to pay off its $31 trillion mountain of debt, according to top economist Paul Krugman," because, "Though the debt-to-GDP ratio hovered around 97% last year, interest payments on that debt is only around $395 billion, according to the Office of Management and Budget, or around 1% of last year's GDP." "Historically, it's unusual for governments to pay off large debts," like "Great Britain, which has largely held on to the debt it incurred as far back as the Napoleonic wars." "First things first: all the experts BBC spoke to do not think the US will default on its debt." BBC. However, "The White House Council of Economic Advisers estimates that if the government cannot reach a debt ceiling agreement for a prolonged period, the economy could shrink by as much as 6.1%." "If the debt crisis roiling Washington were eventually to send the United States crashing into recession, America's economy would hardly sink alone." AP. "A debt default would be a cataclysmic event, with an unpredictable but probably dramatic fallout on US and global financial markets," said Prof Eswar Prasad. But, the US government has shut down previously. The US federal government shut down for 5 days from 14-19 November 1995 and again for 21 days from 16 December 1995 to 6 January 1996 because of a budget disagreement between then President Bill Clinton and House Speaker Newt Gingrich. wikipedia. Democrat Clinton won his re-election in 1996. The US government again shut down for 35 days from 22 December 2018 to 25 January 2020 because of budget disagreement between President Donald Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. wikipedia. Republican Trump lost his re-election in 2020. In 2011, "when lawmakers agreed to raise the debt limit just days before the nation was about to exhaust its borrowing capacity," "The stock market tumbled, the Dow shedding 17% in the weeks surrounding the crisis." CBS. Although the two events may not have been related, Democrat Barack Obama won his re-election in 2012. The Democrats have won every time there has been a government shutdown. Create an unnecessary confrontation. A supportive media gets hysterical. Biden refuses compromise. Wins re-election in 2024. No matter the economy.

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