Sunday, May 21, 2023

Bypass the dollar.

"Last Sunday, the Iraqi government announced a ban on doing personal or business deals in US dollars." DW. "Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia's finance minister said his country was also 'open' to selling oil using different currencies, including the euro and the Chinese yuan. The United Arab Emirates has said it will work with India, using the Indian rupee." Additionally, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain want to join BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - and Russia has said "the alliance will discuss the creation of a new kind of currency". Since 2021, a pilot project between the Bank of International Settlements and the UAE, Thailand, Hong Kong and China has been looking at "digital, cross-border payments that might bypass the dollar. So is it RIP for the US dollar? Not quite. The Chinese economy is the second largest in the world, China has a good credit rating with no modern history of defaults, Chinese bond yields are higher than similar high-rated bonds and the People's Bank of China controls the exchange rate of the yuan within a narrow range. Georgetown University. That is good but China controls capital outflow to control  the value of its currency. "That China uses capital outflow controls is a serious concern for foreign investors - including central banks - since controls have implications for liquidity." "When used they can effectively lock investors' capital in China." As for India, "Several banks, including HDFC Bank and UCO Bank, have opened as many as 30 special vostro accounts as of date to facilitate overseas trade in the rupee." ET. "The move to open the special vostro account clears the deck for settlement of payments in rupee for trade between India and Russia, enabling cross-border trade in the Indian currency, which the RBI is keen to promote." "In 2021 Russian oil accounted for just 2% of India's annual crude imports. That figure now stands at almost 20%, the Bank of Baroda said. India's purchases of oil from Russia during the last financial year, saved it around $89 per tonne of crude, the figures show." BBC. As a result, "Russia has accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks which it can't use, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said...pointing to the ballooning trade surplus with the South Asian nation." HT. "This is a problem," Lavrov said. "We need to use this money. But for this, these rupees must be transferred in another currency, and this is being discussed now." "An Associated Press analysis of a dozen countries most indebted to China - including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia - found paying back the debt is consuming an ever-greater amount of the tax revenue needed to keep schools open, provide electricity and pay for food and fuel." AP. China not only controls its currency, it is increasingly controlling people. "China is increasingly barring people from leaving the country, including foreign executives, a jarring message as the authorities say the country is open for business after three years of tight COVID-19 restrictions." Reuters. The rupee cannot be used and China is a rogue nation. So, the dollar lives.  

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