Wednesday, May 31, 2023

More people, more heat.

"Falling birth rates are a major concern for some of Asia's biggest economies." BBC. "Japan began introducing policies to encourage couples to have more children in the 1990s. South Korea started doing the same in the 2000s, while Singapore's first fertility policy dates back to 1987. China, which has seen its population fall for the first time in 60 years, recently joined the growing club." These policies have failed. "Japan's finance ministry has published a study which said the policies were a failure." Fertility rate for the European Union is just 1.5, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1 per woman. World Bank. Populations shrank in 22 countries of Europe in 2022 and the trend has continued in 2023. wikipedia. For India, "The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) -- which is the average number of children who would be born to any woman in her lifetime -- has declined from 2.2 in 2025-16 to 2.0 in 2019-21. It was revealed in the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey, or NHFS-5, conducted over two years starting in 2019." BS. "India's TFR of 2 is currently below the replacement of fertility of 2.1 children per woman." "Africa, on the other hand, seems to be going in the opposite direction. The sub-Saharan region has the world's highest average fertility rate at 4.6, with Niger topping the list at 6.8 children per woman, followed by Somalia at 6. Congo, Mali and Chad each have fertility rates of over 5." DW. "African societies are not only growing fast, they are also much younger than almost any other region. While the median age in Europe is 42.5, in Africa the figure stands as low as 18." One Asian country is defying the trend of falling fertility rates, and that is India's neighbor Pakistan. "Pakistan is hurtling towards an apocalypse" which is "There are simply too many of us, too many to educate, to keep healthy, to provide jobs for, or to govern in a manner that could ensure the semblance of an ordered society." Dawn. "Each year, there are in this country 1.4m unwanted births and 2.2m abortions and miscarriages that could be avoided through family planning." Although many Indians are pleased to see Pakistan suffering, a collapse of the nation with nuclear weapons and jihadi fanatics, would be extremely dangerous for us. "The past offers some clues. The turmoil in Pakistan in 1971 led to a bloody subcontinental war and the creation of Bangladesh. In 2008, the movement against Pervez Musharraf's military rule came to an end and the leader suffered a defeat at the polls. Months later militants linked to Pakistan attacked India's western city of Mumbai." BBC. If militants don't kill us, global warming may. "We are adding 80 million to the global population annually." Independent. "Combined with exploding consumption, the population explosion is pushing humanity over the climate and ecological crises cliffs." "So why is there a deathly silence from the climate movement and at Cop on the 'P' word." Some Pakistanis are worried. Indians and Africans should be worried too. 

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