Saturday, May 20, 2023

Fastest is relative.

"India's gross domestic product (GDP) for the October to December quarter moderated to 4.4 percent from 6.3 percent in the previous quarter, data shared by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed." ET. According to experts, GDP growth would have been at 7% in 2022-23 and will be around 6% in 2023-24 because of "aggressive rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India" and because of "consumption growth, which has been at around 2% and obviously the government expenditure has been negative." "Compared to 1980-81, using current prices, the share of 'agriculture and allied activities' has dropped from 38 percent of GDP to 21 percent, while that of services has grown from 37 percent to 53 percent. That of industry (including has remained construction and utilities) has remained more or less unchanged at 26 percent." The Print. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas "contended that India's growth in the current year (estimated by the IMF at 5.9 percent) was near the limit of its capacity, and there was no 'output gap' between actual and potential growth." "The output gap is an economic measure of the difference between the actual output of an economy and its potential output. Potential output is the maximum amount of goods and services an economy can turn out when it is most efficient - that is at full capacity." IMF. If there is no output gap in India the economy must be working at near full capacity and any rise in demand will merely result in higher prices. Which may explain why consumer price (CPI) inflation has been averaging at over 6% since December 2019, rateinflation.com, even as the RBI tried to stimulate growth by holding interest rate at 4% for 24 months from May 2020 to May 2022. NDTV. It is only natural that consumer demand will slow down if prices keep soaring, as "the 2023 PwC Global Consumer Insights Pulse Survey said, 63% of Indian consumers are tightening expenditure on non-essential goods and services," because "The average inflation in FY23 was 6.7%, prices in rural areas increased 6.8% from year earlier. The urban retail inflation averaged 6.4% in FY23." ET. As a result, "Corporate profits from January to April, or Q4 of financial year 2022-23, are up just 2-3% year-on-year, Business Standard reported." The Wire. "This is the companies' worst performance since April-June 2020." To put it in perspective, a near total lockdown was imposed on the whole of India from 25 March 2020 which shut down all economic activity, except agriculture, till 1 June, when the government started relaxing it in little increments. wikipedia. "While the government would like India's citizens to believe that the country came out of the exogenous COVID shock in a V-shaped recovery and has become the fastest-growing large economy in the world, most economists outside the government have repeatedly argued that what India experienced has been a K-shaped rebound, not  recovery," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. Our economy is growing fastest among large economies. But is it fast enough?    

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