Thursday, June 01, 2023

Very good news.

"A stronger-than-expected fourth quarter lifted India's growth to 7.2% in FY23, exceeding the 7% cited in the second advance estimates released in February, underscoring the country's economic resilience in the face of multiple challenges." ET. "Manufacturing gross value added (GVA) rose 4.5% in the March quarter from a year earlier, reversing two quarters of contraction. The government's capital spending boosted gross fixed capital formation by 8.9% in the quarter, lifting its share in GDP to an all-time high of 35.3%, but private consumption was sluggish with a 2.9% rise." "Moderation in commodity prices and easing of input cost pressures in recent months have led to a rebound in the manufacturing sector," wrote Prof Radhika Pandey and Pramod Sinha. "The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy's (CMIE) CapEx database shows that the value of new projects announced saw an upsurge in the quarter which ended in March." To put all this in perspective, "Real GDP in 2018-19 - the financial year before the pandemic - was at Rs 139.9 trillion. In 2022-23, four years later, the size of the Indian economy is expected to be Rs 160 trillion. This implies an economic growth rate of 3.4% per year on average over these four years," wrote Vivek Kaul. "This can be seen in the contrast between the consumption decisions being made by the well-to-do vis-a-vis the poor." "While private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growth slowed down significantly over the course of 2022-23, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) continues to show robust momentum," wrote Roshan Kishore and Ashokamithran T.  Rise in GFCF, which reflects new investments (OECD), is due to a 24% increase in capital spending by the government between 2021-22 and 2022-23. Despite the spurt in spending the government has achieved its fiscal deficit target of 6.4% because of a "massive windfall on account of inflation". No surprise that, "urban consumer sentiment, as captured in the RBI's Consumer Confidence Surveys continues to be in the red." "The unemployment rate in urban areas in the January-March quarter of 2023 slowed to 6.8% from 8.2% in the January-March period of last year as the job situation improved and economic activity gathered strength." TOI. However, everyone is not sharing in this exuberance. "While people under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India's population, almost half of them - 45.8% - were unemployed as of December 2022, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an independent think tank headquartered in Mumbai, which publishes job data more regularly than the Indian government." CNN. A probable 'time bomb'. Private investment in new business can be deadly. "A retail chain with multiple retail establishments having operations across six cities and two states and a corporate office in a single state deals with 3,182 compliances in a year, a report by Teamlease Regtech says. Among them 1,192 (or 37%) compliances contain imprisonment clauses." ET. The news is wonderful only for the government. Not for the youth. The nation's future.   

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