Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Who wants to be Pappu?

"India's consumer price based (CPI)  inflation eased to a 11-month low of 5.88 percent in November on an annual basis from 6.77 percent in October 2022." ET. The number has dropped within RBI's tolerance band of 2-6 percent after 10 months." It is mainly because food inflation dropped to 4.67% in November from 7.01% in October. This rise in prices is on top of the 4.91% rise in CPI in November 2021. NDTV. It may be within the tolerance band of the RBI but it means a compounding price rise for Indian consumers. Core inflation reflects change in prices of goods and services but excludes volatile food and fuel inflation. Investopedia. "Data from the CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) shows that core inflation increased five basis points to 6.19% in November," wrote Pavitra Kanagaraj. No wonder, "The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), a measure of industrial activity, contracted by 4% in October after expanding by 3.1% in November." Because, "The consumer goods subcategory contracted for the fourth consecutive month" despite the festive season. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection jumped by 11% to 1.46 trillion (Rs 1,45,867 crore), ET, showing the compounding effects of inflation rate rises. That explains the tolerance of the RBI even though Indian consumers are suffering. The RBI raised its interest rate by a cute 35 basis points to 6.25%. ET. "The RBI net sold $33.4 billion in the foreign exchange market in the first six months of the current fiscal to defend the rupee from excess volatility, FM Nirmala Sitharaman said." TOI. As a result, "The Indian Rupee has been strong against every currency," said the Finance Minister in Parliament. Since India imports more than it exports, a relatively strong rupee brings down the cost of imports and thus helps to keep inflation slightly under check. But a strong rupee makes exports more expensive. Hence, India's merchandise exports contracted to $29.78 billion in October from $35.45 billion in November, while the trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion. ET. "The merchandise trade deficit for April-October 2022 was estimated at USD 173.46 billion as against USD 94.16 billion in April-October 2021." A strong rupee and low interest rate is great for the rich. "This year has seen the highest-ever growth for such super-luxury cars in India (with a minimum price tag of Rs 2 crore [Rs 20 million] and more) as sales grew by 50% in 2022, breaking the previous record." ET. The trade deficit with China alone was $51.5 billion during April-October this year. BS. We cannot blame oil imports for this. Using percentages, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal sought to disguise the fact that the trade deficit with China increased by about $35 billion in the 10 years from 2004-2014 but has jumped by $37 billion in the 7 years since. TOI. Who is the 'Pappu' (meaning incompetent) now, asked Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra. TOI. Did anyone claim that sobriquet? We doubt it.

No comments: