Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Revenue and spending.

"Raising interest rates is not advisable even for developed countries, as it leads to higher input costs for industries and compromises the competitiveness of their products in the global markets," wrote Rahul Prakash & Neeti Singh. "Addressing an inflationary environment through a fiscal retreat could help put economies on a sound footing in the long run." "Fiscal retreat" means lower government spending. But, "The US House of Representatives...passed 225 to 201 a $1.7 trillion bill to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year," providing "$772.5 billion for nondefense discretionary programs, and $858 in defense spending." CNBC. "The figures represent around a 5% increase in nondefense spending, and an 8% hike for the Pentagon and national defense." "Consumer prices rose 7.1% in November from a year ago the government said." ET. So, government spending is keeping track of inflation. "Shrugging off rampant inflation and rising interest rates, the US economy grew at an unexpectedly strong 3.2% annual pace from July through September, the government reported." ET. The total US government debt has ballooned to $30.93 trillion, which is 124% of GDP. fiscaldata.treasury.gov. However, "As of November 2022, it costs $103 billion to maintain the debt, which is 11% of total federal spending." "In the fiscal year 2022, federal revenue was equal to 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), or economic activity, of the United Sates that year $4.90 trillion." fiscaldata.treasury.gov. Which means interest payment on the huge US government debt was a mere 2.10% of total revenue. The Indian government budget for 2022-23 projected borrowings of Rs 16.61 trillion, which will increase interest payments to 43% of revenue receipts in 2022-23. PRS. The total debt of the Government of India will be an estimated Rs 152 trillion on 31 March 2023, but if the external debt is priced at current exchange rates then the total debt will be Rs 155 trillion. indiabudget.gov.in. India's "Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 236.65 lakh crore (Rs 236.65 trillion)." pib.gov.in. At Rs 152 trillion our total debt is about 64% of estimated GDP but if it is taken as Rs 155 trillion, then it rises to 65.4% of GDP. So, although India's total debt/GDP ratio is almost half of the debt/GDP ratio of the US, our interest payment/revenue ratio is 43% to just 11% for the US. No comparison really. Big chunks of US government spending, such as Social Security, National Defense, Medicare and Net Interest, amounting to 41% of total spending, fiscaldata.treasury, can hardly be reduced. "While the Centre has said it will tighten its fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26 (it is budgeted at 6.4% this year), anxiety has been aired over this being too big a target." Mint. "Last week's decision to extend free food handouts that began as a welfare measure after the virus struck India was a sign of its lasting effects. Social spending cutbacks are unlikely for other reasons, too, such as general elections in 2024." Exactly. Why advise the US? We should put our own house in order. But, will we? 

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