Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Consumption is half of GDP.

"The World Bank on Tuesday (yesterday) revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for India to 6.9% for FY23, saying the economy was showing higher resilience to global shocks." TOI. "This is the first upgrade of India's growth forecast by any international agency amid the global turmoil." India's "Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-22) Prices in Q2 (July to September) 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 38.17 lakh crore (Rs 38.17 trillion), as against Rs 35.89 lakh crore in Q2 2021-22, showing a growth of 6.3 percent as compared to 8.4 percent in Q2 2021-22." pib.gov.in. "Between 1990-91 and 2019-20, the Indian economy grew at an average rate of 6.2% per year, and the annual rate of population growth dropped to under 1%. As a result, per capita income improved, and paced up, with each decade," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. "A hypothetical misery index made up of 4% inflation, 5% joblessness and 7% growth would be good for India." But, "The many rising headwinds, both domestic as well as external, will more than halve the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth to 4-4.5% in the second half of FY2023 (1 April 2022-31 March 2023)." NDTV. The economy grew by 9.7% in the first half. In India, "Investments in factories, roads, and other fixed assets are just shy of 35% of domestic output; they haven't been this high in 10 years. Loan demand is growing so fast that deposits can't keep up," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The oft-cited reason is what multi-national corporations refer to as their 'China+1' strategy." However, "Now that pent-up consumption from the pandemic is exhausted," "Nomura's consumption tracker fell from 11 percentage points above its pre-pandemic reading in the June quarter to below that level in October." "Only 15% of the $33 billion in private investment approved by the government under its production-linked incentive program has fructified so far; fewer than 200,000 jobs were created as of September, compared with expectations of around 6 million." Private consumption expenditure typically forms 55-60% of GDP, wrote Vivek Kaul. "It grew 9.7% during July to September, after having grown by close to 26% from April to June." Naturally, if this slows down GDP growth will follow suit. "Contraction in the manufacturing sector signals stress in Asia's third-largest economy, economists warn, after growth slowed in the second quarter amid rising prices and higher borrowing costs." ET. One reason is that, "Data from the Controller General of Accounts till September 2022 shows that the Centre transferred only 24% of the RS 334,339.42 crore (Rs 3.34...trillion) budgeted for states under finance commission grants, loans and transfers - only 33% on the revenue account and, sadly, only 5% under the capital account," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Money is finite. If the government pockets it there is little left for others to spend. Consumption falls. Hence, so does manufacturing.  

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