Sunday, December 11, 2022

Galloping Sensex.

The S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index, or Sensex, is an index of 30 financially sound, well-established companies listed on the BSE. wikipedia. The index was taken as 100 on 1 April 1979 and had grown by 10 times to 1000 by 25 July 1990. On 1 December 2022. it opened on 63357.99, hit an intra-day high of 63583.07 before closing on 63284.19. wsj.com. Which means that it had grown 63 times in 32 years and 5 months. It is trading at 62,068.98 this morning. BSE. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is also an index of stocks of 30 prominent US companies listed on stock exchanges and is maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices. wikipedia. Its end-of -year closing value was 40.45 in 1896, reached 107.23 in 1919, closed at 300 in 1928, fell to 59.93 in 1932 and did not reach 300 till 1954. Just before the great crash of 1929 the DJIA had grown 10 times in 9 years, peaking at 381.17 on 3 September 1929. wikipedia. This was the start of the Great Depression  and after several ups and downs the DJIA  reached its lowest level of 41.22 on 8 July 1932. It took over 25 years, till 23 November 1954 for the DJIA to return to its peak of 3 September 1929. It breached the 1000 level briefly in 1980 but did not close above 1000 consistently till 1983. macrotrends. It reached a peak of 36,934.84 on 4 January 2022 before closing down at 36,799.65. Yahoo. It closed at 33,476.46 on Friday, 9 December 2022. So, in the 39 years since 1983 the DJIA has grown by around 33 times, while the Sensex has grown by almost twice the rate in 32 years. In 1990, India's GDP was about $321 billion and has grown to $3.2 trillion in 2021, macrotrends. So India's GDP grew by 10 times while the Sensex multiplied by 63 times in the same period. In 1983, the US GDP was about $3.6 trillion and grew to nearly $23 trillion in 2021. macrotrends. So the US economy grew by 7 times while the DJIA multiplied by 33 times. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) consists of 30 developed economies, wrote Karan Mehrishi. The characteristics of these countries are that they have large multinational companies, spend a lot on research. have very rich banks, powerful central banks and active citizens groups. India's largest company Reliance Industries had a revenue of $102 billion in the whole of the last financial year of April 2021 to March 2022, HT, while the US company Apple posted revenues of $123.9 billion in the last quarter of 2021 alone. Variety. Market capitalization of Reliance Industries is $214.22 billion, companiesmarketcap.com, while currently that of Apple is $2.6 trillion. Why then is the Sensex galloping so far ahead of US markets? "Today, we are facing the worst aspects of the 1970s (stagflationary shocks) alongside the worst aspects of the global financial crisis," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. So, "The mother of all stagflationary debt crises can be postponed but not averted." Do we have the mother of all bubbles? Will it burst?   

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