Yields do not agree.

"Britain's economy is on course to shrink 0.4% next year as inflation remains high and companies put investment on hold, with gloomy implications for longer term growth, the Confederation of Business Industry forecast." Reuters. "The UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022, signalling what could be the start of a long recession." CNBC. "The country faces a historic cost of living crisis, fueled by a squeeze on real incomes from surging energy and tradable goods prices."  In the US, on the other hand, consumer spending increased to $14.179 trillion in the third quarter of 2022 from $14.099 trillion in the second. Trading Economics. But, while "The labor market has remained resilient, with unemployment rate at 3.7% in November, only slightly above the 50-year low," and "Wage growth, though not completely offsetting inflation, has been solid, at a 5-6% annual clip," "The personal savings rate, once boosted by fiscal stimulus relief, has plummeted from a peak of 33.8% in April 2020 to 2.3% in October 2022 - the lowest it's been since 2005," and "Credit card revolving debt has surged to an all-time high, at nearly $1.2 trillion." Morgan Stanley. "The downturn in the euro zone economy has deepened as high inflation and fears of an intensifying energy crisis hit demand, adding to evidence the bloc is heading for a winter recession." ET. The S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to "a 23-month low of 47.3 in October from September's 48.1". India is unperturbed by what is happening in the developed economies. "Amid global shocks and challenges, the Indian economy presents a picture of resilience and the regulators are ready to take appropriate actions to preserve financial stability, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said." HT. But, "India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said." TOI. India's "private consumption expenditure typically tends to form 55-60% of GDP. It grew by 9.7% during July to September, after it had grown by close to 26% from April to June," wrote Vivek Kaul. In absolute terms, India's Private Final Consumption Expenditure grew to Rs 41.379 trillion in the third quarter (July-September) of 2022. St Louis Fed. And yet, despite the rosy economic picture for India compared to predictions of recession in the US, UK and EU, the yields on 10-year government bonds in India is 7.322%, in.investing.com, 3.845% in the US, CNBC, 3.6640% yesterday in the UK, Trading Economics, and 2.464% in Germany. The marked difference is because dealers want to hedge against high inflation continuing in India and a consequent drop in the exchange rates of the Indian rupee against the dollar, euro and sterling. Because rich countries control inflation and the RBI thinks that growth will come from high inflation. So, the Indian government's borrowing cost is double that of the US, UK and Germany. Very high price to pay. Could the RBI be a problem?