Monday, December 12, 2022

Endogeous negotiations.

"UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch is visiting New Delhi for the sixth round of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between the UK and India, first formal round since July." ET. "Strong growth in the Indian economy is expected to boost UK exports to India by over 9 billion pounds by the middle of the next decade." "Big-hitting UK brands such as Pret A Manger, Revolut and Tide announce expansion in India." Gov. UK. "Visit enforces UK's strategic tilt to Indo-Pacific, home to some of the fastest-growing economies in the world." Badenoch's visit to Delhi was necessitated by Brexit, when "The UK voted to leave the EU (European Union) in 2016 and officially left the trading bloc - its nearest and biggest trading partner - on 31 January 2020." BBC. The EU was a $17 trillion economy in 2021, World Bank, while India was at $3.173 trillion in the same year. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a vociferous campaigner for Brexit,  predicted  it will save 350 million pounds a week which can be used for the National Health Service (NHS). Reuters. But, "Overall, Britain's net payment to the EU worked out at 181 pounds a week." "According to one study, UK exports fell by more than 20%, compared to a projection of what they would otherwise have been, in the first 15 months following the post-Brexit trade deal with the EU. Imports from Europe have bounced back, but exports haven't," wrote Clive Crook. The UK relied on new FTAs. "The first such deal was with Australia last year. Completed incompetently and in haste, it's now derided by officials, at least one former minister and UK businesses for surrendering more than it gained." "Former environment secretary George Eustice savaged the UK's free trade deal with Australia and criticised Liz Truss's role in negotiating it." BBC. "This includes giving Australia or New Zealand full access to the UK market to sell beef and sheep, while Australia still bans the import of British beef, he added." "London's Brexit options are limited and unappealing," wrote Crook. "It would need to start by acknowledging - even if tacitly - Brexit's two great tactical errors." "First, London would be negotiating with the EU from a position of weakness; second, the EU would be pleased to see Brexit fail, and conspicuously, to discourage other rebellions." "Mainstream economics tells us that people's goals ambitions are 'exogenously' given, meaning they are hardwired into us," wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. But, like the FIFA World Cup has shown "many of our ambitions are endogenously created. Rather than being born with them, we acquire and cultivate them along the way." Brexit was created by Johnson's fictitious claim of 350 million pounds. The Indian government treats us like children , wrote Manu Joseph. "They bully us in many ways, and there is a presumption visible in every public policy - that we are not smart or mature." "On their part, Indian adults do behave like children." The UK Trade Secretary is here. We are both endogenous. Should be in agrement.

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