Thursday, December 01, 2022

Expats keep on paying.

"The world must cooperate to tackle the greatest challenges of climate change, terrorism and pandemics, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday (1 December) as India began its year-long presidency of the Group of 20 (G20)." Reuters. He said, "India would aim to depoliticise the global supply of food, fertilizers and medical products, so that geo-political tensions do not lead to global disruptions." "India must use the G20 to launch a collaborative effort to weaken the dollar," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. "The over-strong dollar has stoked high inflation in other countries, since most commodities are priced in dollars." "The rupee has gone from Rs 74 to Rs 82 to the dollar this year. Even when oil returns to its pre-war price in dollars, it will be 12% more expensive in rupee terms." Crude oil prices have already fallen sharply with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling from $120 per barrel in May to $81 per barrel today. Trading Economies. "The US dollar tends to strengthen when the global economy is weak, the Unites States outperforms the rest of the world, and the Fed goes on the offensive with rate hikes." JP Morgan Private Bank. But the dollar may be weakening because, "The softer-than-expected US CPI report was a clear start, China has made moves towards reopening and supported property sector weakness, and European natural gas prices are over 60% off their summer highs." What Aiyar wants. "India's economic growth pace halved to 6.3 percent in July-to-September, amid rising repo rates and contraction in manufacturing." ET. Private consumption which constitutes 55-60% of GDP "grew by 9.7% during July to September, after having grown by close to 26% from April to June," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Investment, which forms a much smaller part of the GDP" grew by 10.4%, while government expenditure contracted by 4.4%. A survey by People Research on India's Consumer Economy (PRICE) reported that cities with populations of over 1 million accounted for 27% of the middle class, and 43% of the rich. "These cities generate 29% of the country's household disposable income, 27% of total spending and 38% of total savings." TOI. In the 9 metro cities of Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad "nearly 55% of households were middle class and 13% were rich and 32% were aspirers." And yet, despite strong economic growth, more recognition abroad and rising numbers of middle class and rich people Indians want to migrate abroad. In 2021, Canada admitted 100,000 Indians who have become permanent residents of Canada, wrote Biju Dominic. 721,050 Indian-born people are living in Australia. "Almost 76% of Indian students looking to study abroad plan to work and settle overseas after completing their international degree. In contrast, 86% of Chinese students returned home to China between 1978 and 2019. Perhaps, not such a bad thing. India is to receive a record $100 billion in remittances from expat Indians in 2022. CNBC. India will have the largest population by 2023. BBC. Makes sense to export what we are experts at producing. Goes on paying every year.

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