Friday, December 23, 2022

It's not revri.

"The Union Cabinet on Friday (yesterday) approved the revision of the pension for family pensioners of armed forces under One Rank One Pension (OROP) from July 1, 2019." ET. This will give a nice lump sum as recipients get arrears for two years. In July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi "warned people against the revri culture under which votes are collected by promising freebies and said this could be 'very dangerous' for the development of the country." India Today. However, OROP is not revri because "The decision has been taken with the aim to attract youth to join armed forces." But, this government forced through the Agnipath scheme for the armed forces in July 2022. Under this scheme soldiers will be recruited for only 4 years and then sent home with a one-time bonus of Rs 1.171 million. wikipedia. 25% of the recruits may be selected for a career in the armed forces, the rest will not get any pension. Elections to assemblies in 10 states are to be held in 2023, including "Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana along with the Northeast states - Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram. Elections may also be held in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. BBC. "Union Cabinet on Friday approved extension of free food grain distribution scheme for 81.3 crore (813 million) poor people for a period of one year." ET. That would be about 57.5% of India's total population of around 1.414 billion. worldometer. "It will cost Rs 2 lakh crore (Rs 2 trillion). Centre will bear the cost." Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said at a press briefing held after the cabinet meeting. This will take us nicely to the next general elections in India to be held by May 2024. wikipedia. However, this is not the mother of all revris. But why is this necessary when "Next year's optimism for India is driven by strong corporate earnings, a post-pandemic retail boom and an economy set to grow by 6% in the next fiscal year - which will make it the world's fastest growing major economy in 2023." Reuters. Surely, such strong growth will create millions of jobs and should reduce the number of poor people. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects India's real GDP growth to moderate to 6.8% and 6.1% in FY23 and FY24 respectively." TN. But the IMF also, "highlighted public debt sustainability risks. The Indian government differs from the IMF's position on the sustainability of its debt." Why such confidence? Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022-23 was estimated at Rs 64.95 trillion while the Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices was Rs 36.85 trillion. pib,gov.in. The enormous difference is because real gdp is calculated after making allowance for inflation. The government is so confident because it collects taxes on the nominal GDP and direct tax collections, after adjusting for refunds, have jumped by 26% to Rs 11.35 trillion, which is about 80% of its budget projection of Rs 14.20 trillion for the entire financial year. HT. Over 68.5 million have filed tax returns for 2021-22 so far this year. ET. This is just 8.3% of the beneficiaries of the free food scheme. And so, can be ignored safely. Why not add real revris with free grains?   

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