Thursday, December 15, 2022

Selling lemons? Possible.

"Over the last 30 odd years, through ebbs and flows, the zeitgeist of globalization and now the unraveling of the same, through conflicts and wars, Indian stocks have been massive outliers to all its emerging market (EM) peers," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. "Over time, the correlation between growth and stock returns have come down significantly." Our population of 1.4 billion is apparently in our favor. "India today sells a total of 3 million cars every year. (South) Korea with a population of 50 million sells 1.5 million" That is why our companies give great shareholder values. "With an 8% year-to-date (YTD) rise, the sensex is currently the best performing index in the world in 2022. The increase is in sharp contrast to most global indices that are deep in the red." TOI. "Market players said that the growing SIP contributions and buying by domestic institutional investors amid a nearly Rs 1.3-lakh-crore (Rs 1.3 trillion) selloff by foreign funds in the year has boosted Indian stocks." "India is growing faster than what is captured by the country's official data, and it presents a case for an upgrade of equities outlook, Credit Suisse said." ET. Even "The World Bank...revised upwards its GDP growth forecast to 6.9% for FY23, saying the economy was showing higher resilience to global shocks." TOI. If our economy is so strong why "India has proposed curbing the import of private jets and helicopters as the South Asian nation seeks to plug the widening trade deficit, according to a document from the country's aviation ministry seen by Bloomberg." ET. Any plane weighing over 15,000 kg (33,100 pounds) and turbo jets should be banned. "The government is working on ways to contain surge in imports of non-essential goods with an aim to boost the country's exports and reduce trade deficit an official said." ET. In the Budget in 2020, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman "announced Customs duty hike on a range of items, including toys, furniture, electronic goods, and footwear." BS. In addition, "As many as 350 customs duty exemptions have been withdrawn in the Budget 2022-23 to boost domestic manufacturing." ET. The aim is to force people to buy goods manufactured in India by increasing the prices of imported goods, thus increasing investments and creating jobs. A virtuous cycle, as it were. Strangely, the government is also working on a series of free trade agreements (FTAs). "Earlier this year, the country brought into force a comprehensive economic partnership with the UAE and signed an ambitious trade pact with Australia, committing to reduce tariffs by 85%. Advanced negotiations are also under way to sign FTAs with the UK and the EU." BBC. The EU meanwhile is slyly erecting barriers to imports. "In November 2021, the European Commission proposed legislation to check EU consumption and production of agricultural produce cultivated on deforested land," wrote Sakshi Abrol. "The problem is that Europe cleared most of its primary forests decades ago." If cheap products come from abroad how will our companies profit? In which case, shares of such companies should plummet. Are they selling lemons

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