Thursday, September 08, 2022

Third largest soon.

"Among all major economies, India's growth at 3.83% in the three-year period is highest followed by US 3.78%, Canada 2.58%, UK 1.06%, France 0.68%, Italy 0.21%, Germany 0.11% and Japan -1.27%," wrote Prof Krishnamurthy Subramanian. "Consumption, investment and exports, which represent the three key engines of the economy, have all grown strongly at about 26%, 20% and 15% respectively over the last year. Even over a three-year period, consumption and exports have grown at about 9% and 20% respectively. While investment has grown 3.6% over the three-year period." "Despite being a seasonally weak period, August payments data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) set new records pointing to a strong revival in consumption." ET. "Consumer sentiments in August are muted after an increase of 6.7% in July 2022 on the back of deficient rains and the receding prospects of a healthy kharif crop, the Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy said. ET. "India's merchandise exports fell marginally to $33 billion in August 2022 as compared to $33.38 billion recorded in the same month last year." ET. "India's exports contracted by 1.15 percent to USD 33 billion and trade deficit more than doubled to 28.68 billion in August." BT. "In the first five months of this fiscal year (April-August), exports totaled USD 192.6 billion, while imports stood at USD 317.8 billion leaving India with a record trade deficit  of USD 125.2 billion." ET. "According to the finance ministry, India's external debt increased by 8.2 percent year-on-year to USD 620.7 billion as of March 2022," 53.2% of which was in US dollars. ET. "Foreign currency reserves as a percentage of external debt were 97.8 percent as of end-March 2022, down from 100.6 percent the previous year." "The US surpassed China to become India's top trading partner in 2021-22, reflecting strengthening economic ties between the two countries." BS. "Exports to the US increased to $76.11 billion in 2021-22 from $51.62 billion in the previous fiscal year, while imports rose to $43.31 billion as compared to about $29 billion in 2020-21." The US is one of the few countries with which India enjoys a positive trade balance. If growth in the US falls our exports will suffer badly. Subramanian should think before crowing. "Our nominal exports of jewellery and leather products to the rest of the world actually declined in 2021, compared with the mostly pre-pandemic year of 2019. Exports of these products to the US, by contrast, surged by 50% and 20% respectively. In other words, the huge US stimulus packages in 2020 and 2021 turned out to be a Marshall Plan to revive Indian labor-intensive exporters, albeit unintentionally," wrote Rahul Jacob. "After India overtook the United Kingdom as the fifth largest economy in the world, experts suggest by 2030 India will become the third largest economy globally." India TV. Ruchir Sharma agreed. "More likely 5% growth is now the best case. Even at that pace India will be a breakout star in a slowing world: on track to surpass the UK, Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy by 2032." These economies are on track for recession while we will continue to grow. Merrily. Santa Claus exists.    

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