Monday, September 26, 2022
Middle income.
"India is expected to add another 183 million people to the working age group of 15-64 years between 2020 and 2050," wrote Prof Amit Kapoor & Bibek Debroy. "According to the World Economic Forum, by 2030, India is projected to be led by the middle class. In 2030, around 80% of households will be middle-income, up from 50% today, with the middle-class expected to drive 75% of consumer spending." Provided they are "equipped holistically in terms of education, skills and health". But, how? "According to the report (released by Mr Debroy), income data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2019-20 showed that a monthly income salary of Rs 25,000 (about $312) is already among the top 10 percent of total incomes earned," "while the top 10 percent accounts for one-third of all incomes earned". "If an amount like this comes in the top 10 percentile, then the bottom-most condition cannot be imagined." TOI. "The all-India female labour force participation rate (LFPR) in usual status has increased 2.3% in 2021 to 25.1% as compared to 22.8% a year ago, shows the PLFS annual report for July 2020-June 2021." TNIE. Point to note is that LFPR of rural women increased 3% to 27.7%, while that of urban women rose 0.1% to a dismal 18.6%. According to Prof Himanshu, this is an indication of rural distress with the elderly and women forced to work to augment household income. "Most of these indicators are showing trends and patterns which are similar to what was observed during the last period of severe distress in India's economy, between 1999-00 and 2004-05." These are women who survived birth. "Uttarakhand's sex ratio (number of females per 1000 males) at birth was found to be the worst in the country at 844, and Kerala's the best, at 974, according to the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2020, released by the Registrar General of India." TOI. Normal ratio at birth is around 105 males for every 100 females, wikipedia, which works out to 952 females per 1000 males. "Data shows that southern Indian states continue to outperform the country in health, education and economic opportunities." BBC. Populations in southern states have been falling. They pay more taxes because of their prosperity but get less from the Center because of fewer people. If delimitation of seats, which means reallocation of seats according to population, in parliament goes ahead in 2026 it will mean "with revenue loss and lack of freedom to make their own policies, the prosperous south may have fewer seats in parliament in future." Also our borders are insecure. "Locals near India's border with China in the mountainous region of Ladakh have claimed that the Indian government 'ceded' land to China after both sides agreed to withdraw troops from contentious ares earlier this month, The Guardian reported." Dawn. May be because, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's push to boost domestic manufacturing of defense systems is leaving India vulnerable to persistent threats from China and Pakistan, according to officials with knowledge of the matter." DH. Middle income is between $1,036 and $12,535. Which figure are we aiming for?
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