Tuesday, September 06, 2022

It is written.

At Jackson Hole, "The US Fed sought to reassert its credibility as a serious inflation fighter," wrote Dambisa Moyo. "As such, government, corporate and financial decision-makers should start preparing for a world of stubborn inflation in the mid-single digits." "The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas city hosts dozens of central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming." "The 2022 Economic Policy Symposium, 'Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy'," was held on 25-27 August. "As the world economy becomes more balkanized, companies and investors will be less able to diversify across global markets," wrote Moyo. "Major economic fissures are emerging, and they will force business and government leaders to place greater bets on specific regions as the overall appetite for risk declines." "The economic scenario today resembles the 1970s, when another supply shock drove the world into a stagflationary trap. The big macroeconomic lesson from the 1970s was that policymakers need to prioritise the fight against inflation when faced with the twin threats of high inflation and slow growth," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. "Unless India is prepared to accept some reduction in growth induced by monetary contraction, it will face an era of stagflation." Monetary policy is the domain of the Reserve Bank (RBI). "RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that going forward the monetary policy will be watchful, nimble-footed and calibrated to ensure price stability while supporting growth." ET. "He said that the retail inflation will reach within the tolerance band in the last quarter." So, no need to do anything? What if the US Fed continues to increase rates and the dollar gets stronger? "(US Fed Chair Jerome) Powell used his speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual policy forum at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to reiterate that the US central bank will keep raising interest rates and probably leave them elevated for a while to reduce inflation." BS. "The hit to the euro zone economy and its currency from a deepening energy crisis is so severe that more aggressive monetary tightening from the European Central Bank will do little to stop the euro's slide." Reuters. "It could get a whole lot worse. The thinking among Wall Street traders is that a hawkish-at-all-costs Federal Reserve in increasingly determined to engineer tighter financial conditions - via lower stock prices and higher bond yields still - in order to combat raging inflation." FE. "Global bonds have tumbled into their first bear market in more than 30 years, as soaring inflation is forcing central banks to rapidly raise interest rates." BI. Higher borrowing costs will also stop carry trade and may reverse currency flows towards rich economies. Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said recently that India will be a $30 trillion economy in 30 years. ET. $30 trillion is written. No need for the RBI to do anything. Just let it be

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