A sweet spot.

"I believe that India is in a sweet spot both as an economy which will benefit from an advanced country recession and a market which will benefit from flows in a decreasing oil price scenario. India is in a very sweet spot at this point in time," said Sunil Subramaniam, MD & CEO, Sundaram Mutual. The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rate by 75 basis points for the third time this year on 21 September and committed to bringing inflation down to 2%. BT. "The median projection for the Fed rate is now 4.4 percent at the end of this year." "When interest rates are hiked it is killing demand. So naturally US economic growth will slow down and ultimately slip into recession. But from an Indian economy perspective we are fairly decoupled from America because we do not have too much exports to America compared to the size of our GDP." "The United States has remained India's largest trading partner, with exports of goods and services to the United States worth $102.3 billion." ITA. India imported goods and services worth $56.8 billion from the US in 2021, giving us a positive trade balance of $45.5 billion. "Indian origin FDI into the United States was valued at $12.7 billion in 2020," while "FDI from the United States into India was valued at $41.9 billion in 2020." Strange that Subramaniam dismisses the US as not important when we are gaining in both balance of trade and FDI. There are five big positives for India if advanced economies go into recession. ET. Inflation will fall as commodity prices fall, the rupee will be stronger as we spend less dollars to buy cheaper oil, current account deficit will fall, more money will come into our markets because India's growth will be strongest and supply chains will shift from China to India. It's win, win, win, win, win for India. "We've never had QE (quantitative easing). So the Fed is acting literally in uncharted waters. There's never been global QT (quantitative tightening)," said JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. "India should strive to be the fastest growing economy on the planet for the next decade." "And the question you should always ask is, what are we doing to get there? We deserve it. Why are we not there?" "The government is in no hurry to push inflation - now hovering near 7% and eight-year highs - back to the central bank's 4% medium-term target, for fear that aggressive rate hikes could hurt economic growth, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said." TOI. Instead, "India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $5.22 billion to 545.65 billion in the week ending September 16." ET. "India purchased some of the nation's most expensive liquefied natural gas shipments after Russian deliveries were canceled." ET. We are in a sweet spot. How sweet?