Friday, September 02, 2022

Must be worth it.

"If we look at the GDP for Q1 2022 vis-a-vis Q1 of 2019, then among the top 10 economies for which we have the data, India is by far the highest at 3.83% growth over a three-year horizon. The United States has had a growth rate of 3.78%, marginally lower than that of India but keep that together with the fact that the United States is having unprecedented inflation," said Prof KV Subramanian. "In contrast, India's inflation is trending sharply downwards." The US GDP was $22.996 trillion in 2021. World Bank. 3% of $22 trillion will be $660 billion. The US has a population of 333 million. census. gov. This means every US citizen is richer by at least $2,000. India's GDP, on the other hand, was $3.173 trillion in 2021. World Bank. 3% of $3.2 trillion would be about $92 billion. Divide that by India's population of 1,393 million, World Bank, and you have a few paise. "US employers added 315,000 new jobs in August, far fewer than in July," BBC, " The jobless rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, according to the figures from the US Labor Department." In India, "The unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years and above in urban areas dipped to 7.6 percent during April-June 2022 from 12.6 percent a year ago, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said." News18. Inflation in the US was below 2% till February 2021, rose to 2.6% in March and then started rising.  usinflationcalculator.com. Since 1980, inflation in India has always been much higher than that in the US, worlddata.info, and inflation compounds every year. The difference in inflation is reflected in the falling value of the Indian rupee against the dollar. One dollar bought 3.30 rupees at independence in 1947. Thomas Cook. One dollar is equivalent to Rs 79.72 this morning. xe.com. And that is despite, "India's foreign exchange reserves dipped by $3 billion in the week ending August 26 as the Reserve Bank of India continued dipping into its reserves to prevent the rupee's slide. The reserves stood at $561.046 billion, before the US Jackson Hole symposium which took place on August 26 and saw Fed chairman Jerome Powell making hawkish commentary on the fight against inflation." ET. Our foreign exchange reserves have fallen from a record $642.453 billion in the week ended 3 September 2021. NDTV. At Jackson Hole, Powell said that the US Fed is determined to continue to raise interest rates to control inflation even if "they will bring some pain to households and businesses". CNBC. How much of our reserves will the RBI sell to compete with the Fed, and what happens to the rupee if it can't continue any longer? So, why is Prof Subramanian, resorting to blather. It probably has nothing to do with, "Former Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Krishnamurthy Venkata Subramanian has been appointed as executive director for India at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a Personnel Ministry order stated." And since he will be resident in the US, his salary will be entirely tax free. incometax.gov.in. Just sayin'.  

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