Tuesday, September 27, 2022

And, the devil take the hindmost.

"Chinese President Xi Jinping reappeared on state television Tuesday (yesterday) after a several-day absence from public view that sparked rumors about the 69-year-old leader's political fortunes. Xi was shown visiting a display at the Beijing Exhibition Hall on the theme of 'Forging Ahead into the New Era." abcnews. "China's focus of political goals like Covid Zero over economic objectives is making the country less appealing to European companies as a place to invest, a business group said, calling on Beijing to refocus on reform." ET. "The OECD slashed GDP forecasts for most of the G-20, with only Indonesia featuring a moderately higher outlook." ET. "The global economy will expand just 2.2% in 2023," so "The new projection for the year means output will be $2.8 trillion less than officials had predicted at the end of 2021." "A downturn in business activity across the euro zone deepened in September, according to a survey which showed the economy was likely entering a recession as consumers rein in spending amid a cost of living crisis." ET. "S&P Global's flash Composite Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, fell to 48.2 in September from 48.9 in August." "A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates no change." Investopedia. "The downturn in German business activity deepened in September," as the PMI "fell to 45.9 in September from August's final reading of 46.9." Reuters. The UK currency, the sterling fell sharply. "Sterling has weakened more than 20% against the dollar this year and it is set for its biggest monthly decline since November 2008." Reuters. Partly, this is due to a massive reduction in taxes in a mini-budget unveiled by the new Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng. wikipedia. Partly, this is due to the strength of the US dollar. "Fueled by hawkish Federal Reserve policy, US economic strength and investors in search of a haven from market swoons, the greenback is surging relentlessly against counterparts big and small by the most in decades." ET. What about the US? Is it immune? "US GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters - 1.6% during the first quarter of 2022, and 0.6% the next. In most countries, that's a recession. Just not in the US." BBC. "US consumers buying cars and going to restaurants and bars in August drove a surprise bounce in retail sales, even as spending on gasoline fell as prices at the pump dropped." ET. "Every recession has led to loss of factory jobs that never returned. But the recovery from the pandemic recession has been different: American manufacturers have now added enough jobs to regain all that they shed - and then some." ET. However, some forecast a grim future. "As in the 1970s, persistent and repeated negative supply shocks will combine with loose monetary, fiscal and credit policies to produce stagflation. Moreover, high debt ratios will create the conditions for stagflationary debt crises," predicted Prof Nouriel Roubini. Each nation has to look out for itself. And, the devil take the hindmost.        

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