Sunday, September 04, 2022

Comparison conceals.

"India's economy grew 13.5% year-on-year in the April to June quarter, the fastest pace in a year, official data showed amid fears of growth sharply slowing this quarter and the next two as higher interest rates hit activity." Reuters. "Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast gross domestic product in Asia's largest economy would grow 15.2% year-on-year in the April-June quarter." "Nevertheless, at 13.5%, India's GDP growth is 2.8 times higher than the average GDP growth for the 20 largest economies, which is 4.9%," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh. "Schadenfreude is that jolt of pleasure we feel in other people's misfortunes." Forbes. "Schadenfreude is part of how we cope with inferiority or our own failures - seeing someone else fail makes us feel better and reminds us we are not the only one." "Real private final consumption expenditure, which declined by Rs 4.77 trillion in Q1FY21 owing to the pandemic, is now 110% of the pre-Covid level," wrote Ghosh. "The Index of Consumer Sentiments (ICS) dropped by 3.2% to 70.7 by August 21 from 73.1 in July 2022 with a 3.4% dip in rural India and a 1.7% dip in urban India, CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) said." ET. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) survey in July showed that "Though the consumer confidence index has improved and now stands at 77.3, it is still in negative territory, since consumers are still being pessimistic, the survey revealed. In May 2022, the consumer confidence index was 75.9. Index figures below 100 are considered to be in pessimistic territory, but if the index is above 100, it indicates optimism." Outlook. "A lot of the spikes in sales of goods and services are basically pent-up demand that is being translated into purchases," wrote Yashwant Deshmukh & Sutanu Guru. CVoter conducted a survey for the Mint on 28 and 29 August which showed that "About three in every four respondents were of the opinion that it has become difficult to manage household expenses." On the other hand, "Bank credit growth accelerated to 14.2 percent in the quarter ended June 2022 from 6 percent in the same period of the previous year, RBI data showed." BS. The growth has been broad-based covering all population groups, all banks and all regions of the country. "India's merchandise exports fell marginally to $33 billion in August 2022 as compared to $33.38 billion recorded in the same month last year." ET. Imports rose 36.8% to $61.7 billion. "For the first five months of this fiscal year (April-August), exports totaled USD 192.6 billion, while imports stood at USD 317.8 billion, leaving India with a record trade deficit of of USD 125.2 billion." ET. "The widening trade gap has a direct impact on the current account deficit (CAD), which in turn influences the rupee's resilience, investor sentiments and macroeconomic stability." If growth in our trading partners is weak they will import less while our strong growth will increase imports, which will increase CAD with its attendant problems. Schadenfreude may feel good but reality will catch up. Better to face up.    

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