Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Sledgehammer vs pussyfooting.

"US and European importers of merchandise like bags, apparel and jewellery are asking their Indian suppliers to ship cheaper products, as the purchasing power of inflation-battered consumers in those markets has declined." ET. "The high inflation is taking a toll on the consumer's pocket, forcing them to cut down on spending, especially on discretionary items. That is getting reflected on the orders for Indian exporters from their biggest markets." Exactly. High inflation, or rising prices, forces people to cut spending to fit their earnings. In India, "Retail inflation rose to 7 percent in August on higher food prices, ending a three-month downtrend and threatening to further destabilise household budgets and hurt consumer spending." DH. "Meanwhile, industrial production (IIP) growth plunged to a four-month low of 2.4 percent in July compared with 12.3 percent in June." Manufacturing sector grew by 3.2%. "India's wholesale-based (WPI) inflation eased to 12.41 percent in August as against 13.93 percent in July, 2022. The number has remained in double digits for the 17th consecutive month." ET. The WPI inflation was 11.39% in August 2021. NDTV. Inflation compounds year-on-year, so with input prices galloping upwards, consumer prices are going to rise as well. "The US Federal Reserve is expected to strike the inflation monster with a sledgehammer rate hike of 75 basis points in its next meeting on September 21." ET. In India, "Analysts expect a sharper 50 basis points hike in the next policy meeting." The European Central Bank, "the ECB raised rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points," and "will be raising rates several times in the near future." CNBC. Why is our Reserve Bank (RBI) pussyfooting with inflation when other central banks are going at it with a sledgehammer? Because, "The Finance Ministry expects goods and services tax (GST) collections to top Rs 1.5-lakh-crore-mark (Rs 1.5 trillion) from October." ET. The higher the prices the more booty for the government. "Of the total increase in employment of 82 million between 2017-18 and 2020-21, more than 60% was among women workers, and more than half was in agriculture, reversing a trend seen since 2004-05. A break-up by age groups also indicates that a significant increase was recorded among younger age cohorts along with the elderly, who, like many women, were likely forced to move into the labor market to supplement household incomes during times of distress," wrote Prof Himanshu. "For India, the World Inequality Report estimates that in 2021, the share of the top 1% in national income was 21.7% and that of the top 10% was 57.1%, while that of the bottom 50% was only 13%," wrote Prof Deepak Nayyar. "Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...sought to know from India Inc what is stopping them from getting into manufacturing." ET. Simple: we cannot afford to buy at these prices. You can have growth or you can have huge tax collection, can't have both. Something akin to eating your cake. wikipedia.

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