Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Adani wins over Bezos.

"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday (yesterday) raised its benchmark interest rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point" to take its "federal funds rate up to a range of 3%-3.25%, the highest it has been since early 2008." CNBC. Markets would have already priced in a 75 basis points hike after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming last month, promising aggressive rate hikes to control inflation. BS. But, US markets fell yesterday with all three indices falling by over 1.70%. Reuters. Because "Along with the massive rate increases, Fed officials signaled the intention of continuing to hike until the funds level hits a 'terminal rate', or end point, of 4.6% in 2023." "The 'dot plot' of individual members' expectations doesn't point to rate cuts until 2024." "Powell conceded that a recession is possible." The US may be intolerant of inflation but, "India's government is in no hurry to push inflation - now hovering near 7% and eight-year highs - back to the central bank's 4% medium-term target, for fear that aggressive rate hikes could hurt economic growth, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said." ET. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has a mandate to keep inflation at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side till March 2026. ET. If the government is overriding the RBI in this vital function they should get rid of the Monetary Policy Committee and save a large sum of money in huge salaries and perks for these officials. "Higher rates hurt demand, inflate the loan rates for consumers, or the 'aam aadmi' (common man) in particular who feel more burdened when they are already paying over Rs 100 for a liter of petrol in many parts of the country." ET. That is a complete canard. The common man is more burdened by rising prices of items of daily use and nobody takes a bank loan to buy milk, rice or cooking oil. "And of course, higher rates increase the interest costs for corporates too." That is very true. "The recent acquisition by the Adani Group of the cement maker Holcim's India businesses is expected to add another Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion) to the conglomerate's debt taking it to approximately Rs 2.6 trillion, an analysis by Credit Suisse showed." TIE. As a result, "Creating wealth at an unprecedented speed of Rs 1,612 crore (Rs 16.12 billion) per day, billionaire Gautam Adani has more than doubled his wealth in the last one year to beat Amazon founder Jeff Bezos as the world's second-richest man, according to IIFL Wealth Hurun India Rich List 2022." ET. The rupee "hit a fresh record low of 80.285 against the dollar at open". ET. A weak rupee will boost inflation by increasing the cost of imports. Unless the RBI also matches US rate rises. Another smokescreen is to compare with other countries. Should we feel proud by comparing with failed states like Zimbabwe, Lebanon or Venezuela? Inflation may have jumped to 9.8% in August in Sweden but till last year Sweden had a negative interest rate, to discourage people from saving, Reuters, because its inflation was so low. Bluffing will not stop rising prices. Jeff Bezos loses because he is in America. Adani wins because he is in India.      

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