Friday, April 08, 2022

Whose growth?

As expected the RBI did nothing. "While the Reserve Bank of India's six member monetary committee (MPC) voted to leave the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 4% for the 11th-straight time, RBI now sees lower-than-forecast growth and higher inflation," ET. Shockingly, "Governor (of RBI) Das announced that the inflation for the current fiscal is now projected at 5.7%, up from 4.5% forecast in the February meeting," ET. Very clever. According to government mandate, the RBI has a target of 4% for consumer price index (CPI) inflation, with a 2% margin on either side, ET. That means a range of 2-6%. So, a prediction of 5.7% inflation rate is within the upper margin of its mandate, allowing the MPC to do nothing without risking ridicule. CPI inflation rose to an eight-month high of 6.07% in February, BS,  and the MPC did not wait for the March figures which will probably be released next week. "Starting in December 2019, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has referred to inflation as being transitory multiple times," wrote Vivek Kaul. Since then to January 2022, our average monthly CPI inflation was 5.9%. Till now, Das has insisted that "while core inflation is a policy concern, the overarching focus is on growth..." TOI. However, "As Nielsen IQ India, a company which studies consumer behavior, recently said, 'Higher inflation levels during 2021 have led to...double digit price increases, resulting [in a] consumption slowdown in urban markets and consumption degrowth in rural markets.' Degrowth is analyst speak for contraction," Kaul. "Indian consumers have started purchasing smaller packs of goods as high inflation puts pressure on household budgets," Mint. "Sales volume of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) fell 2.6% in December quarter from a year earlier, with inflation causing a sharp dip in rural demand after five quarters of positive growth," Mint. High prices mean earnings are buying less than before, which means that people are getting poorer. But the government is doing very well, thank you. "Gross GST collection in March touched an all time high of over Rs 1.42 lakh crore (Rs 1.42 trillion), the Finance Ministry said," ET. "Indirect tax buoyancy corresponds directly to inflation and high inflation does translate into high indirect tax buoyancy, explains DK Srivastava, chief policy adviser, EY India," wrote Gireesh Chandra Prasad. "For example, the heavily taxed automobile industry has been a key source of revenue to the exchequer." "The fiscal deficit for 2020-21 was at Rs 18.2 trillion or 9.2% of GDP. the fiscal deficit for 2021-22..., is expected to be at Rs 15.9 trillion or 6.9% of GDP," wrote Vivek Kaul & Chintan Patel. "Inflation surge: Who gains and who loses?" asked Pramit Bhatacharya. "The biggest gainer will be the country's largest bond issuer: The government." By tolerating inflation with the excuse of growth the RBI has impoverished people, reduced demand and undermined growth, only to help the government. The RBI has cut the expected growth rate from 7.8% to 7.2%, NDTV. It has nothing to do with the fact that Governor Das is a retired IAS officer and worked in the Ministry of Finance, wikipedia. Inflation is for everyone. Ergo, it is "pubic good", Investopedia.      

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