Thursday, April 28, 2022

Collateral damage.

Indian farmers are selling wheat to private buyers instead of to the government. "Strong demand following Russia's invasion of Ukraine means the growers are receiving the highest prices ever for their crops, while also easing pressure on the state's grain procurement agency which racks up huge debts as a buyer of last resort," BS. Wheat is one of the crops that the government buys at a minimum support price (MSP) which sets a floor under market prices, wikipedia. This is done to protect farmers from losses if prices fall too low because of a bumper crop, TIE. Farmers in certain states are so dependent on MSP for their earnings that they mounted a year long protest at the outskirts of Delhi forcing the government to repeal 3 Acts which would have allowed farmers to negotiate with private buyers, BS. "Before the nearly 50% surge in global wheat prices, India struggled to export the grain due to annual increases in the MSP to placate the politically powerful farm lobby that made Indian wheat more expensive than world prices." India maintains a buffer stock of wheat and rice in memory of the humiliation of having to depend on the US PL-480 program in the 1960s when two successive seasons of drought resulted in severe shortage, TIE. However, because of MSP, stocks of food grains exceed the mandated buffer. In July 2021, "The central pool of foodgrain stocks held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) climbed to a record high after a very high procurement of rice and wheat in the past kharif and rabi season involving a payout of Rs 2.5 lakh crore (Rs 2.5 trillion) as the minimum support price (MSP) to the farmers," moneycontrol. "The current holding is about three times higher than the stocking norms for the central pool for the quarter beginning July 1." Now, "Public stocks of wheat have fallen to a three-year-low, although still over 2.5 times the country's minimum operational-cum-strategic reserve requirements," TIE. "Wheat stocks in government godowns stood at 18.99 million tonnes (mt) as on April 1, below last year's corresponding level of 27.30 mt." "Lower state purchases in turn mean big budget savings. Last year, India spent 856 billion rupees ($11.2 billion) buying a record 43.34 million tonnes of wheat from farmers, filling state granaries to the brim and boosting national debt." Not only is the export of wheat helping to reduce government deficit, by reducing spending on MSP, but it is also helping to support the rupee by bringing foreign exchange. The rupee had fallen to 77.02 against the dollar last month, BS, but the exchange rate is at 76.50 to the dollar this morning, xe. So, is it time to celebrate? Sadly, no. "Open market prices of wheat in March rose by 7.77% over March 2021," "the fastest in five years," wrote Vivek Kaul. As a result "the Centre is staring at additional expenses of around Rs 2 lakh crore (Rs 2 trillion), primarily on account of food and fertiliser subsidies," TOI. The war has nothing to do with India. We are collateral damage. Can't punish the perpetrators.

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