Act before trinity becomes impossible.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...said that inflation in India has not breached the inflation target 'so badly' even as the country reels from surging prices amid global challenges like geopolitical strifes and supply chain disruptions," ET. "Retail inflation galloped to 6.95 percent in March from 6.07 percent in the previous month on the back of hardening of food prices," ET. "The RBI has the mandate to maintain inflation at a medium-term target of 4% with an upper tolerance level of 6% and lower tolerance level of 2%." Sitharaman is probably comparing with the US where, in March, "Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment," Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), while, "The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased 1.4% in March." "Final demand prices moved up 11.2 percent for the 12 months ended March," BLS. On the other hand, "India's wholesale price-based inflation quickened to 14.55 percent in March from 13.11 percent in February amid hardening fuel prices," ET. Higher CPI inflation in the US may be partly due to base effect because the CPI inflation in March 2021 was 2.6%, usinflationcalculator, whereas, "The all-India general CPI inflation rose to 5.52% in March 2021 (new base 2012=100), compared to 5.03% in February 2021," BS. The difference between the US and India is that the US Federal Reserve has already raised its Funds rate by 25 basis points and economists forecast a 50 basis points rise in May, Reuters, whereas the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its interest rate at 4% for "the 11th straight time in a row, and retained its accommodative stance", which means it could lower rates if it desires, TOI. Another way of looking at inflation is that it indicates a fall in the buying power of the currency. Since prices have been rising at an average of around 2% over the years in the US, The Balance, compared to an average of around 6% in India, inflation.eu, it follows that the rupee must fall in value against the dollar. "The rupee weakened against the US dollar...as the greenback strengthened globally to its highest level in two years amid surging US bond yields and anticipation of the Federal Reserve aggressively hiking interest rates," ET. "Foreign investors have been withdrawing money from equities since the last six months, pulling out a net Rs 1.48 lakh crore (Rs 1.48 trillion) between October 2021 and March 2022," ET. "India's trade deficit widened to $192 billion in financial year 2021-22 (FY22) as imports hit a record high of $610 billion," BS. With foreign exchange draining out the RBI has been selling dollars to  protect the rupee from a sharp fall so that forex reserves have fallen from a high of $642 billion to $607 billion in March, just enough for 1 year's imports, investing.com. The lower the rupee the higher the prices. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said that weakening the rupee is not in national interest, NDTV. The minister should be worrying about the futility of fighting the impossible trinity instead, wikipedia. The only remedy is to raise rates faster than the Fed. Or watch the rupee plummet.