Wednesday, April 06, 2022

A lot of good news.

"India is on the cusp of a major economic recovery and talks of stagflation are 'overhyped' as a strong economic foundation is being laid with the reforms carried out by the government over the last seven years, Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said," TOI. Splendid, bravo. "Asia's third largest economy is projected to grow 8.9 percent in 2021-22, according to government data. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has pegged the economic growth rate for 2022-23 at 7.8 percent." "India continues to remain the highest receiver of the FDI, and the Indian retail investors have created the capacity to absorb the shock due to outflow of foreign funds from the country's stock markets, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman told the Lok Sabha," ET. "A foreign direct investment (FDI) is an investment made by a firm or an individual in one country into business interests located in another country," Investopedia. "Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) instead refers to investments made in securities and other financial assets issued in another country." FDI is usually long term and so is considered safer while FPI looks for short term gains and maybe described as 'hot money', Investopedia. "Unemployment rate in the country is decreasing with the economy slowly returning to normal, according to CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) data," ET. In February 2022 it was 8.10%, fell to 7.6% in March and then to 7.5% on 2 April, "with urban unemployment rate at 8.5 percent and rural at 7.1 percent". A shower of good news. Countries which spent a lot on stimulating their economies during the pandemic got poor returns, wrote Ruchir Sharma. "India was not among the biggest spenders, which tended to suffer higher inflation, higher interest rates and currency depreciation, at least partly cancelling out the sugar high of stimulus." The consumer price index (CPI) grew by 6.07% in February and 6.01% in January, TIE, which is lower than that in the UK, Mexico, Euro Area or the US, tradingeconomics. At 4%, interest rate, India is in the middle, higher than those of the US and UK but lower than in South Africa and Mexico, tradingeconomics. Problem is that Indians earn very little and are very vulnerable to high prices. The Longitudinal Ageing Studiy in India (LASI) by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in 2017-18, based on a relatively small sample of 42,249 households, found that the top 20% of the population earn less than Rs 100,000 per year, while the bottom 20% earn Rs 25,825 per year, HT. "Several top bureaucrats...flagged their concerns over populist schemes and freebies announced by political parties during assembly elections, going to the extent of warning that some of the states could be heading the way of cash starved Sri Lanka or Greece if the trend remained unchecked," TOI. They probably did not dare to point out the list of schemes started by their sovereign, wikipedia. Or the enormous subsidy for civil servants when the government hiked their Dearness Allowance (DA) by 3% to 34%, back dated to January, ET. Dearness means higher prices. India is a collection of 28 states and 8 Union Territories, GOI. If some go the way of Sri Lanka or Greece could others follow? Perhaps, hold the celebrations. 

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