Saturday, April 09, 2022

Remember what Yogi Bera said?

"Employers are adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month, and would hire even more people if they could find them. Consumers are spending, businesses are investing, and wages are rising at their fastest pace in decades. So naturally, economists are warning of a possible recession," TIE. 431,000 jobs were added in March and the rate of unemployment has fallen to 3.6%, "But to the doomsayers, the recovery's remarkable strength carries the seeds of its own destruction." "It all comes down to inflation, specifically the Federal Reserve's plan to fight it," BI. "If all goes according to plan, the Fed's policymakers see inflation starting to fall later in 2022 and reaching more palatable levels by the end of next year." This is known as 'soft landing' where inflation comes down with low unemployment. "US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned...about the economic shock set off by the war in Ukraine," "and the political response of the West, mostly through sanctions -- has already sent food and energy prices soaring and has raised concerns about an economic slowdown or even recession during a time of already rampant recession around the world," CNN. "Prices for food commodities like grains and vegetable oils reached their highest levels ever" "threatening millions of people in Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere with hunger and malnourishment, the United Nations said," AP. "Yearly inflation in Turkey hit 61.14%..., climbing to a new 20 year high and deepening a cost of living crisis for many households," abc. "Argentina's monthly inflation rocketed to 4.7% in February, the highest since March 2021 and far above forecasts" as "Price jumped 8.8% year-to-date and a 12-month rolling inflation hit 52.3%," Reuters. "Sri Lanka's central bank doubled its key interest rates..., raising each by an unprecedented 700 basis points to tame inflation," which "hit 18.7 percent in March", Reuters. "Bangladesh's economy has witnessed a 6.17 percent inflation in February this year, the highest in 17 months," with inflation on food items at 6.22%, FE. People are blaming the government and "thousands of people took to the streets across Bangladesh this week to protest against the price hike following calls from left-wing political parties," TIE. In the UK, energy costs are set to rise by 54% and "Disposable household incomes, adjusted for inflation, are expected to fall by an average of 2.2% this year, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility," US News. In Germany, "Preliminary figures indicate that inflation hit 7.3% in March," "The main culprit: Soaring prices of gas and oil, which rose by nearly 40% from the year before," CNN. The US instigated this war because it is an "opportunity to bleed Russia white, and to sanction its economy back into the Stone Age," wrote Peter Hitchens. However, "there is one key fact to bear in mind: Vladimir Putin has never lost a war," Newsweek. On the other hand, the US has fought 5 major wars and several minor wars since 1945 and "Except for the Gulf War in 1991, America lost all other wars," Siasat Daily. America's strength comes from its economy. If the global economy collapses who will it trade with? "It ain't over till it's over," as Yogi Bera said.  

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