Monday, April 18, 2022

India is the goose.

In the US,"The worst bond rout in decades show few signs of abating, threatening further pain for both investors and borrowers," WSJ. Because of inflation and the impending rise in interest rates. "In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 8.5 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted," US Bureau of Labor Statistics. "A big reason why many investors expect continued high inflation in the near term is that households are flush with cash and eager to spend money on travel and leisure activities as they begin to worry less about the Covid-19 pandemic." "The Fed (Federal Reserve) kicked off a new tightening cycle by raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 bps (basis points) to a range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent on March 16," BS. "The Fed would stage 50-bps hikes of interest rates at the monetary meetings in May, June, July and September, respectively, said economists with Citibank." In India, "Retail inflation galloped to 6.95 percent in March from 6.07 percent in the previous month on the back of hardening food prices," ET. Food is transported by trucks and prices of petrol and diesel have been increased by Rs 10 each in a series of 14 price increases," NDTV. Extortionate taxes are the reason. "On 1 April, the central government tax and Delhi government tax worked out to around 44% of the retail price of petrol," wrote Vivek Kaul. In Mumbai taxes comprise over 50% of retail prices. "In 2014-15, the total excise duty earned by the central government by taxing petroleum products had stood at 0.79% of GDP." Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, wikipedia. "Since then, the tax collected by the central government has gone up and it was 1.88% of the GDP in 2020-21. In the first six months of 2020-21, the last fiscal, it stood at 1.58% of the GDP."  As the high price of fuel drives up the cost of all goods and services the government rakes in record taxes through GST. "Gross GST collection in March touched an all-time high of over Rs 1.42 lakh crore (Rs 1.42 trillion), the Finance Ministry said," ET. "India's wholesale price-based (WPI) inflation quickened to 14.55 percent in March from 13.11 percent in February amid hardening fuel prices," ET. "Indirect tax buoyancy corresponds directly to inflation and high inflation does translate into high indirect tax buoyancy, explains DK Srivastava, chief policy adviser, EY India," wrote Gireesh Chandra Prasad. Greed for taxes will push up borrowing costs. "For months, India prepared for a remarkable milestone: getting its bonds listed on global indices," Mint. That may have brought in up to $40 billion in foreign investment which would have pushed up bond prices and lowered yields. But, it fell through because the government will not give up taxes on these transactions. Perhaps, they should ask schoolchildren about the goose and golden eggs, read.gov. Slitting India's belly.   

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