Saturday, April 23, 2022

An unpalatable menu.

"A senior US official has warned China against providing 'material support' to Russian President Vladimir Putin's 'unprovoked' war in Ukraine, saying sanctions against Moscow would give Beijing some idea of the menu from which America could choose," ET. It was US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. "She hoped that Beijing would learn the 'right lessons' from Russia's war, including that it can't separate the US from its allies." But China is not waiting for US sanctions. Instead it is shutting down parts of its country as a continuation of its zero Covid policy, CNBC. Around 3 weeks back, "The lockdown of Shanghai, China's biggest city, has been extended to cover its entire population of more than 25 million as the global trade hub battles the worst Covid-19 outbreak since the pandemic began in China more than two years ago," CBC. "An economist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong estimated the shutdown of the critical financial and trade center of Shanghai is costing $46 billion a month, or about 3% of GDP." "The strictest Covid-19 lockdown in China since the pandemic began has resulted in container goods sitting at Shanghai port for nearly two weeks, according to supply chain data provider project44," ET. "Industrial cities and trading ports -- including vital hubs like Changchun, Jilin, Shenyang, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Guangzhou -- have shuttered businesses, imposed travel restrictions, or told residents to stay home," Time. What does it matter to the US? "The already extensive disruptions to global supply chains are being exacerbated by the lockdowns in China, adding to inflationary pressures and difficulties in procuring a broad range of consumer goods," said Prof Eswar Prasad. As a result, "Battered by high inflation readings and sharp messages from (US) Federal Reserve officials about the need for interest rate increases, bond prices have tumbled this year at a pace investors have rarely seen," wsj. Fall in prices of bonds mean that yields are soaring, thus increasing borrowing costs for industry and housing. Also, "Stocks plunged on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffering its worst one-day loss since the throes of the pandemic, as the latest raft of corporate earnings and prospect of rising rates spurred a wave of selling," CNBC. "The pound slumped to its lowest level for more than 18 months amid signs the economy is faltering in the face of soaring inflation. On a worrying day for the Bank of England and Treasury, a flurry of reports showed a slump in retail sales, a collapse in consumer confidence, and a sharp slowdown in private sector activity," thisismoney. In the EU, "The perfect storm of rising prices, constrained supply chains, and economic deceleration is fuelling fears of stagflation and a sudden halt to the post-coronavirus revival," euronews. Shockingly, "US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen...said it was worth considering taking steps to lower US tariffs on Chinese goods given the 'desirable effects' such move on lowering US inflation, which has hit 40-year highs this year," Reuters. Surely, that's not on Wendy's menu? The left hand knoweth not what the right hand doeth.       

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