Sunday, April 24, 2022

Impossible to understand.

"Central banks across the world need to apologize for totally underestimating the problem for over a year. Inflation has hit 8.5% in the US and 7.5% in the Euro-zone, way above their inflation target of 2%," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) suffered the same illusions." Politically correct and safe. Each central bank must act according to its economic needs. So should the RBI. Monthly consumer price index (CPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US shows that inflation has been running at around or below 2% till March of 2021, following which it has gradually risen to the present level, usinflationcalculator. "Americans are, by many measures, in a better financial position than they have been in many years," forbesindia. "Workers have seized the upper hand in the labor market, attaining the largest raises in decades and quitting their jobs at record rates." "Cumulatively, Americans are sitting on...$2.3 trillion more in savings in the past 19 months than would have been expected in the pre-pandemic path." Similarly, in the Euro area, inflation has been below 2% for nearly a decade and started to creep above 2% since July 2021, rateinflation. In India, on the other hand, "The wholesale price index has been in double digits for almost a year and has just skyrocketed to a horrendous 14.5%," wrote Aiyar. "This will hit purchasing power, economic growth and the stock markets." In 2021, "The government...asked the RBI to maintain the retail inflation at 4 percent with a margin of 2% on either side for another five-year period ending March 2026," ET. Which means between 2% and 6%. But a "RBI-sponsored working paper (in May 2021), concluded that a higher threshold for inflation is conducive for growth in emerging economies. For India, growth is maximized if inflation is allowed to rule around 6% and minimized once prices spike to 9.5%, the researchers wrote," ET. Extraordinary. The RBI is recommending a range of 6-9.5%, ignoring government mandate. The annual CPI inflation rate in India was around the 4% level till 2020 when it shot up to 6.62%, macrotrends. The lower inflation rate was achieved by controlling food prices. "To achieve low food prices, the Modi government has placed harsh market controls on agricultural produce," Quartz India. "The Economic Survey 2022 estimated India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at 8.0-8.5% in 2022-23, which hinges on crude oil prices being in the range of $70-$75 a barrel," moneycontrol. Why did the Survey assume such moderate prices for oil when Goldman Sachs predicted oil at $100 per barrel because of rising demand in December 2021? CNBC. If CPI inflation was already above 4%, why did the RBI expect it to fall spontaneously if the economy with a population of 1.4 billion people, worldometer, started to grow at a scorching rate of 8.5% as the Survey predicted? Incomprehensible. Only they can understand. 

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