Tuesday, April 26, 2022

No point in looking.

In India, "Now, more than half of the 900 million Indians of legal working age -- roughly the population of the US and Russia combined -- don't want a job, according to the CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy)," BS. "Between 2017 and 2022, the overall labor participation rate dropped from 46% to 40%. Among women, data is even starker. About 21 million disappeared from the workforce, leaving only 9% of the eligible population employed or looking for positions." Coincidentally, at midnight of 8-9 November 2016, the government suddenly withdrew all Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes from circulation without any warning, wikipedia. A study conducted by the Centre for Sustainable Employment (CSE) at Azim Premji University "revealed that 50 lakh (5million) men lost their jobs between 2016 and 2018, and the beginning of the decline of jobs coincided with demonetization in November 2016. However, the report adds that 'no direct causal relationship can be established based only on these trends'," Firstpost. In fact, "The Indian economy was in one of its worst ever deceleration phases even before the Covid-19 pandemic," HT. "GDP growth "was 8.2% in March 2018 and had fallen to just 3.1% in March 2020." A strict lockdown was enforced on the entire nation from 25 March 2020 because of 500 cases of Covid-19, wikipedia, so the slowdown cannot be blamed on the virus. CMIE "monthly time series data revealed that the overall unemployment rate in India was 8.10 percent in February, which fell to 7.6 percent in March. On April 2, the ratio further dropped to 7.5 percent," ET. "The decrease in the ratio shows that the economy is getting back on track after being hit by COVID-19 for two years," said Prof Abhirup Sarkar. Maybe, but it could also be because people, who have stopped looking for jobs, are not being classified as unemployed. "CMIE data shows that the pandemic has shrunk the active pool of job seekers. And a large chunk of the workforce are reporting themselves as students because they see no employment prospects," wrote Shriya Mohun. "Only 18.6% of working-age women in India participate in the labor force, three times lower than men, says the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2020," wrote Bhuvana Anand, Bashali Bomjan & Sarvnipun Kaur. A large reason is exclusion of women from jobs deemed to be 'hazardous or arduous' by laws enacted by various states. "McKinsey Global Institute estimates that by 2025, equal opportunities for women in India could add $700 billion to the economy."Of the 28 million unemployed persons in 2019-20, young workers in the 15-29 age group accounted for 24 million," wrote Sudipto Mundle. "Among those who are employed, 90% are employed in unskilled or low-skill jobs." Why look for something that doesn't exist. An asthenic people has given up.  

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