Experts may not agree.

In the 2000s, the share of the US "of the global economy rose from a low of 21 - 25%, and its share of global stock markets rose from 42% to 58%," wrote Ruchir Sharma. But, "Between 2010 and early 2020, US debts to the rest of the world rose from 17% to well over 50% of its GDP," and "Two years later they stand at 70% of GDP and a total of $16 trillion." China also has a huge debt problem, plus an ageing population. Indeed, "A total of 7.63 million couples registered to get married across China in 2021, a record low for the past 36 years since 1986 when the Ministry of Civil Affairs started to release such statistics," ET. "China's population increased by 480,000 in a year-on-year comparison from 2020 down from 12 million," and "The number of couples who tied the knot in 2021 was only 56.6 percent of the figure in 2013." "The new winners may well be emerging economies outside of China," thinks Sharma. The question is, who will emerging economies trade with? The GDP of the US in the first quarter of 2022 is estimated at $24.383 trillion, St Louis Fed. China's total GDP in 2021 was 114.37 yuan or $18 trillion, HT. Total GDP of the European Union (EU) in 2020 was $15.292 trillion, World Bank. The total economy of the world may reach $100 trillion in 2022, TOI. Of that, the US, China and the EU comprise a total of around $58 trillion, so if these economies stop growing where will emerging economies send their exports? "The tradable sector of a country's economy is made up of industry sectors whose output in terms of goods and services are traded internationally," wikipedia. This results in competition, innovation and inflow of foreign currency. Non-tradable sectors are services performed by the government, health care, hospitality, food service, retail and construction. These are performed locally and people have to accept whatever is available. And, since these are paid for in local currency any increase in demand will raise prices. In India, "While total exports during last fiscal year (2021-22) increased to a record high of USD 417.81 billion, imports too soared to USD 610.22 billion, leaving a trade gap of $192.41 billion," BS. Household consumption comprises the largest share of the economy. "Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) for the current fiscal year is projected to be Rs 140 trillion, or 59.3 percent of GDP," BS. "There's a perfect storm heading our way, warns Swaminathan Aiyar," ET. He doubts that the government will be able to control inflation. Surely, that is the job of the Reserve Bank (RBI)? "The country's foreign exchange reserves decreased by USD 3.271 billion to USD 600.423 billion in the week ended April 22, RBI data showed," ET. $600 billion may seem like an awful lot but if the RBI continues to sell dollars to support the rupee in an effort to control prices of imports, we will soon run short. India is a low middle income country and will remain there even if our GDP grows to $5 trillion, ET. That is, if we do not go into a recession, even if experts are careful to deny such a possibility, ET. Falling reserves, soaring imports, soaring inflation, it really is perfect.