Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Unemployment and poverty are no dividends.

"Modern capitalism, as we know it, has developed in relatively less densely populated regions of Western Europe and North America (with the exception of Japan). It is no wonder that low population was seen as a virtue for economic growth," wrote Roshan Kishore. "By 2100, which is as far as UN population projections go to, India's population will be 1.45 billion after having peaked at 1.65 billion in 2059." "According to the government's population projections, 53.6% of India's population in 2021 is under the age of 29. More than a quarter of India's population is 14 years or younger." This is supposed to be the mythical 'demographic dividend', that everyone keeps blathering on about, where you have a young population of workers who will increase productivity and collection of taxes. "Demographic dividends are occurrences in a country that enjoys accelerated economic growth that stems from the decline in fertility and mortality rates," Investopedia. In fact, that has been proven by China's one child policy which prevented 250-400 million births, released women into the workforce and resulted in higher GDP per capita. "With better GDP growth has come better nutrition, rising levels of education, longer life expectancies, and higher living standards for the vast majority of Chinese people," The Conversation. China's nominal GDP is expected to reach $16.64 trillion in 2021, wikipedia, but GDP per capita was around $11,000 in 2020, CNBC. On the other hand, "Japan's population shrank by a record 420,000 people last year, government estimates show," as "The total fell for a 12th straight year, shattering the previous record of 329,000 set just a year earlier," Nikkei Asia. And yet the GDP per capita was over $40,000 in 2019 with an upward trend, The World bank. Bangladesh reported per capita income of $2,227 in the financial year 2020-21, while India's per capita income was a pathetic $1,947.417, new india express. It is not enough to have loads of people in working age if the labor force participation rate has dropped from 54.813 in 2009 to 49.166 in 2020, CEIC data. "The labour force participation rate (LFPR) is defined as the section of working population in the age group of 16-64 in the economy currently employed or seeking employment. People who are still undergoing studies, housewives and persons above the age of 64 are not reckoned in the labour force," Economic Times, (ET). The LFPR for women has dropped precipitously from near 32% in 2005 to around 21% in 2019, while that of Bangladesh is a healthy 36%, The World Bank. No wonder people of Bangladesh are getting wealthier. "The 2018 Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) shows that rural females who have studied up to primary are least unemployed (at 0.6 percent) followed by their urban female counterparts at 1.6 percent," Business Today. Unemployment for rural postgraduate-educated women is at 36.8% while for rural graduate women is at 32.7%. "Among male rural youth as well, the percentage of unemployed steadily climbs from 3.1, 9.5, 18.1 and 13.3 for primary, high school, graduate and postgraduate students respectively. Among urban youth, the numbers are a bit higher but show a similar trend." A huge and growing population needs to live, so they occupy public land and build unsafe buildings, one on top of the other, Hindustan Times (HT), which are then made legal by politicians before elections. Now the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) proposes to give ownership rights to illegal constructions on the flood plains of the Yamuna River, Times of India (TOI), possibly creating a human and an environmental disaster in the future. Experts, on the other hand, have urged the DDA "to ensure that no construction, even to the extent of building cycleways, is carried out in the active floodplain", TOI. A growing number of people with no jobs have to eat so Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed to have initiated a "new model of reforms" which means allowing states to borrow more money so as to dish out subsidies. The states are being forced to borrow because the Centre has not paid Rs 74,398 crore (Rs 743.98 billion) GST Compensation for 2020-21, according to West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra, The Financial Express. Pm Modi is truly a jumla master, The Print.   

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