Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Bleeding patients has been abandoned since the days of Robin Hood.

"The surprise spike in retail inflation is expected to make it harder for the central bank to prioritize growth, putting its interest rate setting committee in a wait and watch mode at its next meeting on 4-6 August," Mint. "Rising prices of edible oils and protein rich items pushed the retail inflation to a six-month high of 6.3 percent in May," Businessworld, while "Wholesale price inflation climbed to 12.94% in May" "on the back of rise in prices of crude petroleum, mineral oils viz. petrol, diesel, naphtha, furnace oil" and rose by 10.8% for manufactured items, Economic Times (ET). "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to react yet to multi-month high retail prices as economic recovery remains its prime focus", ET, "however, the RBI is likely to stick with the US Fed's playbook on opting to pin this spurt on transient cost-push pressures and stay focused on the negative output gap," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Bank. India is definitely not the US. In May last year, the US Senate unanimously passed a bill worth $2 trillion (about Rs 146 trillion) to "Give one-time direct payments of up to $1,200 for individuals and $2,400 for couples, with $500 added for every child", CNBC. In December, the US Congress passed another stimulus bill worth $900 billion to provide cash in the hands of the people, U.S.News. In March 2021, "President Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package" to provide "direct payments of up to $1,400 to most Americans", CNBC. That is a total economic stimulus of $4.8 trillion (around Rs 350 trillion) in one year, for a population of about 333 million (33.3 crore) while India's total gross domestic product (GDP) was $2.9 trillion in 2019, World Bank, for a population of 1.4 billion people, Worldometer, before the coronavirus collapse. While the US government, both Republican and Democrats, are putting money directly into people's pockets, our government and RBI are doing their utmost to bleed as much out of us as possible. The RBI has been using every trick in the book to lower interest rate while blithely tolerating high inflation, thus transferring money from savers to the government, ET. In the midst of worldwide disruption in trade the RBI magically earned Rs 991,22 in nine months to 31 March 2021, which it transferred to the government as dividend, moneycontrol. Not content with keeping interest rate at low level the RBI is resorting to buying government bonds worth Rs 1.2 trillion from the secondary market, which is same as quantitative easing, to increase liquidity and drive down interest rate, ET. In reality, inflation has been suppressed by a strong rupee, reducing the cost of imports, due to an influx of dollars into our share market. "In the year-to-date period, foreign portfolio investors have bought local stocks worth a net of over $2.1 billion, which is ten times the inflow seen by South Korea in the same period and seven times that seen by Indonesia, according to data compiled by brokerage firm CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets," ET. The RBI has been buying dollars from the market so that our foreign exchange reserves reached $605 billion on 4 June, Times of India (TOI). "Every $1 billion that the RBI purchases results in around Rs 7,300 crore (Rs 73 billion) of rupee funds being released." Though prices are going up the answer is not to increase interest rate but to increase supplies, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh, TOI. But, how? "Global food import costs are expected to rise 12% in 2021 to a record due to surging commodity prices and robust demand during the Covid-19 crisis, the United Nations agency said," ET. Though India grows most of its food it spends $8.5-$10 billion a year on importing vegetable oils, ET, and "We may be underestimating just how much the shipping crisis will raise prices of consumer goods, a leading economist says," Business Insider. On top of that the government has increased taxes on petrol by over 307% and on diesel by 377%, which is increasing transport costs in the country. Robin Hood was bled to death by his aunt, Historic UK. Bleeding therapy has been abandoned since medieval times. So why are the government and RBI still doing it. To kill us?

No comments: